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The most common question in the mail basket this fall is short and concise: Will there be by-elections now?
The question is justified. The government depends on the support of the Center Party and the Liberals on the one hand and the Left Party on the other. C and L demand the liberalization of labor legislation, which they consider promised by S. The Left Party threatens to fire in that case Stefan Löfven, who in the usual order says himself as little as possible. Both sides boast and say they are ready to fight at the polls.
The answer is still a reasonable no. Three strong reasons speak against an election campaign in the snow this winter.
1. The aspect of time
In Sweden, we have regular elections every four years, regardless of midterm by-elections. The organization of general elections does not take place on a coffee break. We are now less than two years from the next election day, and with each passing day, the appeal of the entire operation diminishes.
A possible new government would hardly have time to adjust its desks before it was time to enter the electoral campaign again.
2. It does not solve anything
The labor law drama unfolds between the parties in Stefan Löfven’s base of government. It is above all the Center Party that wants to liberalize and the Left Party that wants to stop it. V demands influence, C says no.
An additional option would be an exceptionally cumbersome and expensive way to put off unavoidable commitments for a few more months at best.
It’s hard to see how an additional option should cultivate that knot. If today’s opinion polls were an electoral result, it would be worse: the SCVL-MP would certainly retain the majority, but the Left Party would strengthen at the expense of others. The government would need V’s active support in every situation.
3. The option already exists
If the latest dispute damaged the relationship between the Social Democrats and their liberal coalition parties in a way that precludes continued cooperation, then no new elections are needed to change governments. All that is required is for the Center Party, leader of the Riksdag wave, to release Ulf Kristersson as prime minister and then sits in the stands. The purchase would probably be reformed according to the wishes of C.
However, this is unlikely to happen. After all the harsh words that have been spoken on the subject, the political price of liberating the right would be tremendously high for the Center Party, regardless of the factual politics to which it actually leads.
Ultimately, it’s about C and V.
The left party wants I have nothing but a red-green government. It has obvious political reasons. Downtown party power support nothing but a red-green government as long as the voters vote as now.
From this it follows that S, MP, V and C need to find a way to learn to live together. Now or later.
An additional option would be an exceptionally cumbersome and expensive way to put off unavoidable commitments for a few more months at best. The electorate would hardly be impressed.
What was said during the week, from Stefan Löfven, Annie Lööf, Jonas Sjöstedt and even By bolund, suggests that one also realizes this.
Everyone is looking for a way out, beyond the furious alarm in the public that believes the situation and the honor demand.
Both V and C have strong incentives to allow Stefan Löfven to continue as prime minister until the end of his term. With or without a “January deal”, without or after a vote of no confidence and with or without the always liberal liberals as part of the cooperation.
It speaks for itself that it does too.
Actually taking the matter to a by-election, on the other hand, would require a rare measure of political self-destruction.
Viktor Barth-Kron is a political commentator at Expressen.
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The opposition is always irresponsible – watch the last Week with Viktor.
