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Of: TT
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1 of 5 | Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP / TT
Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden.
They are both older, white men who love their country, but whose ideologies are fundamentally different. In just over seven weeks, it will be decided whether it will be Donald Trump or Joe Biden who will rule the United States for years to come.
The electoral campaign is dirty and intense. Here are seven things to keep in mind.
2020 election is unique
The 2020 presidential election is unlike any other for three reasons: Trump, polarization, and the pandemic.
Donald Trump is a president who is completely different from his representatives and who does not follow the normal rules of the game. He is a divisive politician who likes to resort to personal attacks and has a very loyal following.
In recent years, the United States has become increasingly polarized, which colors the electoral campaign. Republicans and Democrats have very low thoughts about each other and both sides regret that politeness has disappeared from politics. Sixty percent of Americans believe both parties have become “too extreme,” according to a Pew Research Institute poll.
The election comes amid a historic virus pandemic that claimed the lives of nearly 200,000 Americans and forced many to stay home for months. It affects both the economy of the country and that of its inhabitants, the vision that voters have of society – not least the issue of health insurance – and their willingness to vote.
Everyone looks at Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The American electoral system differs from many other countries, as voters in each state vote for electors who, in turn, appoint the president. There are a total of 538 voters and the number in each state is relative to the population.
Since some states are established bastions of Democrats (California and New York) or Republicans (Kentucky and Alabama), the election is actually decided in several of the so-called master wave states, where it sits and weighs between Republican and Democratic majorities. . This is where candidates put the finishing touches to convince voters. The main states in the waveguide this year are mainly: Florida (29 voters), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Michigan (16) and Arizona (11 ).
The pandemic overshadows everything
President Trump has been criticized for his handling of covid-19; because it took too long to get the tests to the states, because the health service did not get the resources it needed, because it did not provide factual information, and because it was not willing to wear a mouth guard in public. Many were left unemployed when the partnership closed this spring, which could erode Trump’s support for the sizable white working class constituency. Politically, the pandemic that Joe Biden is playing into his hands has been quick to blame Trump out loud for the United States being the country with the highest number of deaths from covid-19 in the world so far.
However, the president’s supporters believe he has acted forcefully and that another four years with Trump are essential for economic recovery.
With the pandemic still continuing, many Americans want to vote by mail to reduce the spread of the infection on Election Day November 3, and this has become a hot potato. Donald Trump has voiced strong criticism of voting by mail and, without presenting evidence, claims that it means further electoral fraud. Critics say he is trying to undermine the overall electoral process, to more easily challenge the election result if he loses.
Opinions about racism and the economy can determine
Parallel to the pandemic, the United States has been rocked by protests against racism after the black George Floyd was killed in May during a brutal police intervention. This is also reflected in the electoral campaign.
Many Democrats believe it is important to address so-called structural racism, and Joe Biden presents himself as the one who can build bridges between protesters, local leaders, and the police. He has condemned the riots and looting that have broken out in connection with certain protests, but also accused Donald Trump of “spreading racism.”
Trump, on the other hand, claims that he is the one who defends law and order. He likes to send the National Guard to states where protests have degenerated into looting and riots, and he portrays Biden as weak. Trump has called the protesters “bandits” and said he will never allow “angry crowds” to tear down statues (he refers to monuments to former Southern representatives that many today associate with segregation and racism).
Other hot-button electoral issues are the economy and job creation, in light of the crown pandemic. Appointments to the federal courts remain crucial for many morally conservative voters who oppose abortion and same-sex marriage and who are happy that Trump has appointed so many conservative justices so far. Foreign policy and the climate issue are conspicuously absent from the election campaign, until now.
Television debates are very important this year
In a “regular” election year, Trump and Biden and their vice presidential candidates Mike Pence and Kamala Harris had campaigned across the United States. Due to the coronavirus, they are forced to be more selective. There will likely be campaign meetings with fewer participants, digital activities, and a focus on so-called previous wave master states.
As fewer people have the opportunity to see the presidential candidates in real life, the three televised debates between them become more important. They will take place on September 29 (in Cleveland, Ohio), October 15 (in Miami, Florida) and October 22 (in Nashville, Tennessee). Pence and Harris debate once, on October 7, in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Election day on November 3 is not only important for presidential elections. Elections are also held for the Senate, House of Representatives, and countless referenda and elections at the state level, as well as for local assemblies.
Enthusiasm to eliminate Trump
Support for Donald Trump has held steady at around 43 percent in recent years, according to the Real Clear Politics compilation. This means that the president has loyal followers who are not disturbed when they rob. But those are also pretty low numbers for a president who wants to be reelected. During his time in the White House, Trump has not attempted to expand his base, nor has he reached directly into new constituencies. Trump is considered stronger on matters related to the economy, with 49 percent believing he is doing a good job there, while 40 percent approving of his efforts against the coronavirus.
Joe Biden is far from the most popular candidate the Democrats have run. Many of the party’s voters doubt him, but are even more excited about voting for Donald Trump, and that benefits Biden. Also, the split in the party is less than four years ago, when many disappointed Bernie Sanders supporters abstained from voting for Hillary Clinton (who won the nomination over Sanders). Today, 50.5 percent of Americans want to see Biden as president, while 43 percent support Trump. Biden also leads in most wavemaster states, but in many places the margin is small.
Election night can be an election week or an election month
It may be that no one has victory numbers on election night. The Brookings think tank has estimated that at least half of all votes in the presidential election will be by mail or early ballots, other pollsters speak of up to 80 percent. If these are to be counted if they are postmarked on Election Day but arrive later, it is now the subject of countless discussions and hundreds of disputes in court, as all 50 states have their own electoral laws.
It can happen that a candidate wins very convincingly and can declare himself the winner already on election night. But the vote count is more likely to drag on and could also result in recalculation and lawsuits in some states, according to experts TT spoke with. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who lost to Donald Trump in 2016, has advised Joe Biden not to admit defeat on Election Night under any circumstances.
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