Risk that initial numbers are misleading: this is how vote counting works

The high proportion of votes by mail and early votes means that the counting process can take much longer than during previous elections. In some states, early voting has already been counted and the results will be reported as soon as polling stations close. Given that more Democrats have voted early, this could mean that Joe Biden appears to have greater leadership than he actually does in some states. In other states, it works the other way around. There, polling station votes are counted first, while mail-in votes and early votes can take several days to count, especially in metropolitan areas where Democrats are strongest. This could mean that Trump tentatively appears as a leader in states that he later turns out to lose.

Here’s how the vote count works in some of the most important states in the presidential election:

Arizona

Here, vote-by-mail and early voting are counted in advance and reported overnight. Polling stations close at 03 Swedish time and, in normal cases, votes are reported a few hours later. So the first few numbers are expected to benefit Joe Biden right here.

The state is a former conservative stronghold, where Biden has been surprisingly strong in opinion polls. If Biden wins here, it will be difficult for Trump to survive, but early vote counting can paint a misleading picture that Biden has a bigger advantage here than he turns out to have.

Florida

Even in Florida, mail ballots and early votes are counted in advance, so the first few numbers here can also give a misleading picture that Biden is stronger than he is. The last polling stations close at 02 Swedish time and the vote count begins to be reported shortly after. Vote counting is also expected to continue on Wednesday.

Georgia

Here, all votes are counted at the same time, after the polling stations closed at 01 Swedish time. There are many signs of historically high turnout in the state, but full turnout is expected Wednesday.

Michigan

Here, authorities have warned that the vote count will take several days. A final result is not expected until the end of the week. Voting at the polls counts first, so early forecasts can paint a misleading picture that Donald Trump is stronger here than he actually is. The last polling stations close at 03 Swedish time. The state was crucial for Trump in the last election.

North Carolina

In this case, the postal votes and early voting are counted in advance and the figures are expected to be released already when polling stations close at 02.15 SWED (some polling stations have just extended their opening hours). Early results may give Biden deceptively strong numbers here. An hour later, however, Election Day votes are reported, where Trump is expected to have a bigger lead. Around midnight local time, 06am Swedish time, we should, according to the state authorities themselves, have a relatively clear picture of the result here, as they expect 97 percent of the votes to be counted.

Ohio

Votes by mail and first ballots are reported at 02 Swedish time, which may give Biden deceptively solid figures for the moment. Election day votes are reported shortly thereafter. However, a final vote count later is not expected to be completed until a week and a half later, so if it’s even in the state, it may be until November 18 before you know who won here.

Pennsylvania

Here, Election Day votes are counted first, which can make Trump appear stronger than he actually is. Mail-in votes and early votes are counted only afterwards, which can take several days. Republicans in the state have also tried to stop counting all mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day. Polling stations close at 02 Swedish time and votes will begin to be reported shortly thereafter. Small constituencies in rural areas, where Trump’s support is strong, are expected to report their voting results earlier than large cities, where Biden is stronger. It could also mean that Trump seems tentatively stronger here than the bottom line shows.

Texas

Authorities expect all votes to be reported on election night. The last polling stations close at 03 Swedish time. However, there are several ongoing legal disputes over postal and distance voting, which runs the risk of leading to a longer process to select a winner in the state.

Wisconsin

Here, early forecasts can also benefit Trump, as it can take a long time to count votes in the state’s largest district, Milwaukee, where Democrats are strong. A full election result is not expected until lunchtime in Sweden on Wednesday.