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– Theoretically, it is conceivable that Russia will reap some benefits from global warming. But these theoretical advantages are far less than all the disadvantages it will bring us, says Russian security analyst and journalist Aleksandr Golts.
About 65 percent of the territory of Russia is made up of permafrost, perpetual frosts. Now it’s thawing, in some places at record speed. The result is growing infrastructure problems. Houses and roads sink to the ground and large wildfires break out in areas where they have never happened before.
Siberia is full of lakes, many of the so-called thermocharstate lakes that occur when permafrost melts. From above, much of Siberia is a mosaic of green and blue.
Photo: Lotta Härdelin
According to Golts, these changes will generate gigantic costs. At the same time, the Kremlin media is still spreading the message that climate change may turn in Russia’s favor. The 2019 Zvezda TV report describes a Russia that will flourish thanks to warmer temperatures. The feature lyrically describes how many valuable minerals, gas, and oil can be mined at the North Pole when the polar ice disappears.
– Global warming, which everyone fears, will only benefit Russia. Our country has been inadvertently assigned a powerful climate weapon, exclaims the journalist.
It is as if the Kremlin is constantly waiting for a miracle.
This view It is, according to Golts, an expression of a hope that is still nurtured in the Kremlin, namely, that climate change becomes an unexpected force from outside that suddenly makes old problems disappear of their own accord.
– It is as if the Kremlin is constantly waiting for a miracle. That climate change should lead to everything being turned upside down, the latter being the first. In practice: for Russia’s economic problems to be solved, we will find a lot of taxes under the North Pole. That’s why they were in such a rush to put the Russian flag at the bottom of the North Pole in 2007. He imagines everyone else is determined to take over the under-ice tax, too, says Golts.
Russian flag on the background of the Arctic Ocean.
Photo: AP
Over the past 15 years, Russia has made significant military investments in the Arctic. The reason, according to Golts, is precisely the perception of the Arctic as a potential source of wealth, which everyone wants.
– But Russia lacks the technology to build, for example, oil platforms that can operate under these conditions. And these potential oil revenues pale in comparison to the costs of building new infrastructure in Siberia as the permafrost melts. It is quite clear that it is far more advantageous for Russia to do everything possible to curb climate change than to try to reap the short-term benefits.
It is quite clear that it is far more advantageous for Russia to do everything possible to curb climate change than to try to reap its short-term benefits.
Vladimir Putin is under in recent years he has sent double messages about global warming. In 2003, Putin joked that Russians welcome a warmer climate as the crops are getting richer and you no longer have to spend money on warm clothing.
Recently, however, Putin has acknowledged that Russia could face big problems due to climate change. Russia has signed and ratified the Paris Agreement. At the same time, Putin claims that the human impact is still unclear, something that is not true.
– Nobody really knows what is behind global warming. We know that during the history of the planet we have had warmer and colder periods. It is very difficult, perhaps impossible, to calculate how humans affect the climate. But we must not remain passive. We must do everything possible to ensure that the climate does not change, Putin said at a press conference in 2019.
The message is contradictory. Putin, therefore, claims that we do not know why the earth is warming, which is not true. The International Panel for Climate Research (IPPC) stated several years ago that human impact has been proven beyond doubt. Behind Putin’s rhetoric is the fact that the Russian economy is completely dependent on its oil and gas exports.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted in recent years that global warming will cause big problems for Russia, but claims that the human impact is unclear, which is not true.
Photo: Kremlin Pool / TT
At the same time, Putin says that despite this, we must “do everything possible” so that the climate does not change (even though it has already changed). This double message clearly affects the Russian population. When I recently visited Teriberka by the Barents Sea, where the bays no longer freeze and it is warmer in November, several of the residents said they have noticed that it has become warmer. Still, they don’t believe in climate change. As recently as last year, independent Russian media such as Meduza also published an article titled: “Global Warming: Myth or Truth?”
At the same time The north-east passage opens over the north of Russia. This means a new sea route between Europe and Asia, which shortens boat transport by two thirds compared to the time it takes to drive through the Suez Canal. In 2009, for the first time, two ice-class freighters sailed across the entire Northeast Passage, assisted by a Russian atomic bomber.
But according to experts, it will be a long time before the Northeast Passage is navigable for regular freight traffic. If it ever will happen.
– The Arctic Ocean is shallow. It is still difficult for large ships to navigate there, which affects profitability. And there is not enough infrastructure, no fuel depots or ports where ships can be repaired. I don’t think we should expect large cargo ships in the Northeast Passage in the near future, says Andrej Leonov. He is an associate professor of marine hydrography at the Saint Petersburg State Naval University.
A polar bear is trying to access bird eggs on a cliff in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic Ocean.
Photo: Jenny E. Ross / AP
Under the In recent years, several new islands have emerged off the Russian Arctic coast, especially off Novaya Zemlya. It is the result of melting ice. According to Leonov, there are a total of about twenty new islands since 2013.
These islands are often featured as valuable new Russian territory on state television channels. Leonov, on the other hand, considers its territorial importance to be negligible.
– It is an area of just over two square kilometers in total, slightly larger than Monaco. I don’t see them as important from a territorial point of view, but they are interesting to study because they have been covered in ice for a thousand years. The fact that they now exist also affects safety, ships are not aware of them and they can run aground. We must have time to update the graphics.
Once the permafrost has thawed, Siberia turns into a swamp. There you will not be able to build houses or extract gas or oil
Independent security policy expert Pavel Felgenhauer calls Putin’s unclear climate policy “idiocy.”
– Talking about the possible benefits of climate change for Russia shows that they have not understood anything at all. Once the permafrost has thawed, Siberia turns into a swamp. There you will not be able to build houses or extract gas or oil. It will be a disaster for Russia.
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