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I do not want in any way to diminish the heroic struggle of the people of Belraus for their freedom.
Unfortunately, experience shows that democracy is unlikely to replace Lukashenko’s tyranny if it falls.
Last weekend, tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Minsk and other cities in protest against the dictatorship of President Alexander Lukashenko. They did it at the risk of their lives. At least 700 were arrested by the police and many were hit or hit by police rubber bullets.
Ahead of his meeting with Russian President Putin today, Lukashenko has escalated the violence. Every weekend it becomes more and more dangerous to go outside.
But so far the population seems willing to persevere. This is their chance to get rid of Lukashenko and they have no intention of letting it go. Perseverance has proven to be the most important factor in bringing about the overthrow of a dictatorship.
In many places, Belarus is today where Eastern Europe was before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Then, as now, the demands of the street were simple. Freedom, democracy and justice.
At first it seemed brilliant. Communist dictatorships fell one by one. More or less free elections were held.
But in the rear view mirror you can see how extremely difficult it is for a state to go from decades of dictatorship to democracy.
If you are used to being ruled by men who point with the whole hand, democracy easily appears as a chaotic and slow form of government where it takes time to implement decisions. In the end, these are often compromises where no one really gets what they want.
Photo: TT NYHETSBYRÅN
Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin.
Votes for authoritarian leaders
For many, the yearning to return to the habit became too strong. Oddly enough, there can be a form of security in a corrupt and totalitarian society. People know how to act. Who should they pay to get the best health care or who should they lubricate to get the proper education.
A functioning democracy is something that people build for a long time. It is not possible to evoke overnight.
For quite some time we have seen countries like Poland and Hungary gradually slide towards authoritarian rule. Not because any tyrant took power, but because a majority voted for that development.
In countries like Romania, one may wonder if they ever left the authoritarian.
The so-called color revolutions in countries like Ukraine and Georgia at first seemed to have shed the authoritarian yoke, but Russia and President Putin refused to let it go.
Belarus will suffer the same fate if Lukashenko falls. Of all the former Soviet republics, there is probably none as closely linked to Russia as Belarus.
Vladimir Putin would never allow a democratically elected regime in the neighboring country. A regime that, as in Ukraine, could turn to the Western world to modernize its economy and social institutions.
When the two met today, it became clear how weakened Lukashenko has become and by dependence on Russia for the survival of his regime. Putin, you are in the driver’s seat.
Photo: TT NYHETSBYRÅN
Alexander Lukashenko.
Not hopeful
Unlike other leaders, Lukashenko has never abandoned the Soviet model of planned economy. Belarus remains in many ways a mirror of the Soviet Union.
The chances of going from there to democracy are not great even without the clumsy interference of the powerful neighbor.
Experience shows that the old structures will remain. Very few, apart from Lukashenko and his family, are likely to be purged.
Those who stay will keep their positions in the meat pots.
The fact that the democratic movement in Belarus appears more or less leaderless may at first glance seem comprehensive. But without a clear and respected form of leadership, the chance of success diminishes.
It takes a Vaclav Havel or a Nelson Mandela to inspire and bridge the contradictions. Even then it is not certain that things will go well.
The Czech Republic is today ruled by a billionaire with dubious democratic credentials. In South Africa, development does not seem to be heading in the right direction either.
Therefore, as much as I hope that the people of Belarus will succeed in defeating the dictatorship, it is difficult to be especially optimistic.
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