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Concerns about mutations that have arisen in England and South Africa have prompted several countries to impose stronger restrictions. Several countries have stopped traveling from South Africa and England due to mutations that are often described as up to 70 percent more contagious than the original virus, sars-cov2, the new coronavirus.
On Monday he declared UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson cites the increasing spread of the disease as one of the reasons for the introduction of new and strict restrictions. When South Africa made a similar decision on December 28, the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, said that the new variant is significantly more contagious and therefore more difficult to stop.
In Sweden, a ban was introduced on commercial aircraft carrying passengers from the UK.
– Certainly I understand the concerns of the authorities, but the first thing to do is to check if something is more contagious, they have not done it, says Tomas Bergström, professor and chief physician at the Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg.
The information that The new mutation would be “up to 70 percent more contagious” than the new coronavirus came from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who quoted his health minister Matt Hancock on December 19.
Tomas Bergström criticizes how what is really a “feared” contagion has become a “confirmed” contagion. More research is needed here. Bergström believes that it is not yet possible to say with certainty how it is transmitted:
– This is an increase in spread of up to 70 percent, but there is no reliable data that infectivity increases. And something has to spread and now it turns out to be this variant that has taken over and is now spreading, he says.
– But it may be that mutations are more contagious, but nobody knows for sure.
The South African variant It has also been said to be even more contagious than the British.
But that doesn’t seem to be the case. On Tuesday, Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist at the WHO, said there was no evidence that the mutation in the coronavirus detected in South Africa was more contagious than the one detected in the United Kingdom.
According to Tomas Bergström, the British mutation would have to spread much more if it were really more contagious. Something that remains to be shown. Instead, it is seen how those infected are young, up to 20 years old, in the southeast of England. But if infectivity is really general, it should apply to all ages. However, there is a possibility that the infection appears for the first time in the younger age groups, says Tomas Bergström.
Information also arrived on Monday that the South African mutation would also be more difficult to protect against the vaccine.
“In theory, it is a reasonable concern that the South African variant may be more resistant,” Professor Shabir Madhi told the BBC.
Something that Tomas Bergström has yet to see any evidence for:
– That claim is not supported yet, but I think it will work with vaccination, says Tomas Bergström.
According to Tomas Bergström, it may be enough that we have a virus, sars-cov2, which thrives very well during the winter months and can be transmitted through the air and get an extra boost during Christmas shopping to explain the increasing spread and that more people are infected:
– No new variants are needed to explain this spread.
Now Tomas Bergström waits that there is data from cultures in cell cultures that can show how virus variants multiply there. But so far, all reports of the virus are based on epidemiological studies, which are not supported by experimental or laboratory experiments.
– We have measles, mumps and rubella, fifty-year-old viruses, where the vaccine still works well, despite the fact that all three change much more than the coronavirus.
