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British researchers believe that the new strain of the virus may be 70 percent more contagious than previous variants. But state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell hesitates. There is still great uncertainty about the rate of spread of the virus strain.
– I think it’s very difficult to know. It’s hard for me to understand that it exists in several other countries where it doesn’t seem to have spread in the same way so far. Among other places in Australia, where you have very good control, says Anders Tegnell.
At the same time, he believes that it is reasonable that Sweden and other EU countries now introduce a travel ban. While the new virus is being investigated, steps are needed to reduce the risk of it coming here.
– It is not entirely unthinkable that it already exists here in Sweden. That’s probably what you’ll have to try to figure out in the next few days, how widespread it is already and what consequences it will have, says Tegnell.
Tegnell on the spread
Mathematics professor Tom Britton declared on Sunday that the new strain of the virus could have major consequences for the infection in Sweden.
– A good guess is that the R number is now around one because it is quite stable. It is high level but no longer seems to increase But if this new strain of virus arrives, the R number will eventually go from one to 1.7, which means a wide spread of the infection, he said.
But the state epidemiologist points out that not only the virus affects the spread.
– This is never just a virus that determines how many people get sick. It is also about what the environment is like, how many people have already been ill, how to get together. The appearance of the virus is only part of the spread of the infection in general.
Focuses on analytics
The Public Health Agency will now focus its virus testing on the new variant. So far it has not been found in Sweden, but in the last two months the proportion of tests has been relatively low.
– We will look even more now than before. Above all, we will look even more for those from the UK, says Anders Tegnell.
How is the pandemic developing in Europe at the moment?
– In almost all the countries of Europe, we have a big problem to control the curve, it is obvious. It seems that the virus is more likely to spread during this time of year and requires more than in the spring when we control it. That is why more and more efforts have been made over time. Then we will see what effects we get from it. It is very difficult to know in advance.
