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During the autumn, unusually few people died in Sweden compared to recent years. According to statistics from Statistics Sweden, the number of deaths in September was two percent in previous years and in October, where some deaths can still be reported, nine percent fewer died than in an average October in 2015-2019.
– We can probably expect it to increase by a few percentage points, but there is no indication that we will have an excessive death rate in October. October will likely land, says Tomas Johansson, a researcher at Statistics Sweden.
The excess mortality is the number more people died compared to an expected normal value for the season, which is based on data on deaths over the past five years.
Low death rates have been in place since July and August, both showing a death rate of minus one percent. Also in January and February, fewer died compared to previous years.
What stands out strongly is April and May, when several thousand people died in covid-19. Since the turn of the year, all but three weeks have had a death rate.
– We have been somewhat below normal levels for a long period now, says Tomas Johansson.
The low numbers below that The third trimester does not surprise state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell:
– That is always the case. After a period of high mortality, one arrives with low when mortality affects the frail and elderly, he says.
In Sweden, the average person dies about 90,000 people each year. But there is an extension. In the last five years, that is, from 2015 to 2019, between 89,000 and 92,000 have died, according to Statistics Sweden. As of October 31, 79,000 people had died. Statistically, between 15,000 and 16,000 will be added before the end of the year.
– It seems that Sweden will have an unusually high number of deaths this year. But we don’t yet know how November and December will play out, says Tomas Johansson.
Read more:
Statistics from Sweden: excess mortality in Sweden continues to fall
