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The crown pandemic is more likely to last two years.
That’s written by a group of experts in a new report, according to Bloomberg.
It is proposed that the countries of the world pose the “worst case scenario”.
The report, released April 30, predicts a research team at the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy that can take until 2022 before the coronavirus is under control.
“According to recent flu pandemics, this outbreak is likely to last 18-24 months,” the researchers wrote initially.
Infects before symptoms.
The reason is the virus’s ability to spread among people who do not appear to be sick, and therefore makes it more difficult to control than, say, the common flu.
Factors such as longer incubation time, increased asymptomatic spread, and increased spread of infection between humans make covid-19 appear to spread faster than a normal flu, according to the researchers. Also, people can be more contagious even before symptoms appear, which is also a contributing cause.
Photo: ANDERS WIKLUND / TT
Intensive care unit at Karolinska Hospital in Solna.
Although the crown’s progress is expected to go in waves, the team continues to state that the situation is expected to be under control only when two-thirds of Earth’s population is immune.
“It probably won’t stop until 60-70 percent of the population is immune.”
I should plan for the worst case
The expert group’s recommendations are that countries should plan for the “worst case scenario” where the first wave of covid-19 in spring 2020 is followed by an even bigger wave in fall / winter 2020 and then one or more waves smaller in 2021, and that there is no availability of vaccine or collective immunity.
“The message from government representatives should be that this pandemic does not end soon and that people must be prepared for it to flare up again in the next two years,” they conclude in the report.
Photo: Stefan Hörberg / Rithuset AB
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