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On Friday, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan arrived in Moscow at the invitation of President Vladimir Putin. Officially, they are invited to “consultations” under the auspices of Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In practice, it is about trying to find a way to stop the bloodshed in Nagorno-Karabakh. The area belongs to Azerbaijan de jure, but has been a separatist republic under Armenian protection since the civil war of 1988-1994.
Less than two weeks ago, Azerbaijan attacked the area. Since then, civilian areas on both sides have been bombarded with rockets. The exact death toll is difficult to determine, as there are no independent observers in the area, but there are hundreds.
For more than a week, Putin was silent. This week, however, he has spoken several times by phone with the respective presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pasjinjan and Ilcham Aliyev. Now he is urging both countries to agree to a ceasefire.
In Russia, many react to the fact that Moscow treats its former ally Armenia so coldly, partly because Putin has been silent for a long time, partly because he has not expressed any clear support for Armenia.
– It is a pity! Why don’t we help Armenia? exclaimed my neighbor in St. Petersburg when I met her on the stairs the other day.
Traditionally Moscow has always been behind Armenia. The country has been considered a Christian outpost in the Caucasus, a people it helps for cultural, religious and historical reasons. Without Russian help, it is not certain that Armenia would have won the war against Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s.
Since then, Azerbaijan has been renewed. The Azerbaijani advance on Nagorno-Karabakh in recent weeks took Armenia by surprise and its actions now indicate some panic. Of these two countries, Azerbaijan is a dictatorship and Armenia a democracy. But now the Armenian government has banned public criticism of the government’s war policy. It is also forbidden to express doubts about the ability of the Armenian and separatist republics of Nagorno-Karabakh to defend themselves.
A few days ago, Armenia withdrew the accreditation of the Russian journalist Ilya Azar, sent from the independent Novaya Gazeta. One of the people Azar has interviewed in his report says that the situation at the front is difficult and that the Armenian losses are significantly higher than the government admits.
For the meeting in Moscow, Armenia and Azerbaijan they have taken some initial peace steps. Prisoners of war and corpses have been exchanged. The fact that one is willing to meet at a high level is a sign that some preparatory work has already been done. But the parts are still far apart.
Twice, in 1999 and 2011, there has been a close solution in Nagorno-Karabakh. On both occasions, the model has been for Armenia to give up much of its own territory to gain control of Nagorno-Karabakh. In 1999, Armenia was ready to give up its common border with Iran.
Now, that model is not likely to be on the table. Azerbaijan has clearly stated its willingness to solve the problem militarily. Russia is likely to demand something in exchange for Armenia stopping them.
Read more:
Continuation of the climb in Nagorno-Karabakh
