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Of: TT
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Photo: Ingela Landström / TT
Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a ceasefire in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The recent riots have been the bloodiest in 25 years.
Here are the background to the conflict and the major obstacles.
What is Nagorno-Karabakh?
A mountainous area in the Caucasus that formally belongs to Azerbaijan, but is in practice a separatist region under the wings of Armenia, with a mainly Armenian population. The small autonomous mountain enclave is completely surrounded by Azerbaijan and has up to 150,000 inhabitants. The largest city is called Stepanakert (an Armenian name from the Soviet era; Azerbaijan calls the city Chankendi).
Why is there a conflict in the area?
The conflict has important nationalist connotations and both countries make historic claims in the area. Azerbaijan believes, in principle, that Nagorno-Karabakh is an occupied territory that belongs to Azerbaijan, which it also formally does. Armenia wants the area to become Armenian or at least under Armenian influence and wants to take the Armenian people to defense. The ruling Karabakh mainly hope for independence and for some to recognize their self-proclaimed state formation, the Republic of Artsach.
Why is no one happy with the demarcation?
It was Soviet leader Joseph Stalin who in the 1920s divided the area with administrative and controversial boundaries: Nagorno-Karabakh became part of the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, as did Nakhtivan, which is still a large Azerbaijani enclave surrounded by Armenia. .
Historically, the area has largely been under the control of various great powers. It was conquered by the Russian Empire in 1813 and already within the Russian borders it began to rub between Armenian Christians and Azeri Muslims. During the Russian Revolution, both countries became independent for a time and began to fight over where the borders should be drawn, before both reached the Soviet Union.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s and the countries became independent again, they were embroiled in a full-scale war. Approximately 30,000 people, most of them Azeris, were killed and hundreds of thousands of Armenians and Azeris were driven in different directions. A ceasefire was signed and peace talks began, which have not yet resulted in an agreement.
Why do battles break out now?
The battles in recent weeks have been the bloodiest since 1994. They began in July and took off in September. The countries have accused each other of having started and their leaders have exchanged fateful words that the situation must be decided.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said the country must take matters into its own hands after years of failed diplomacy.
– It’s a big difference compared to the 1990s, that countries are now equipped to the teeth. An escalation of the conflict today would have very devastating consequences, Jakob Hedenskog, a security policy analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI), previously told TT.
In the background are Russia and Turkey. Russia has a military pact with Armenia and a military base in the country, but it also has relations with Azerbaijan and has sought a mediating role in the Caucasus, which now seems to have paid off.
Turkey views the Azeris as a fraternal Turkish people and has pledged its full support for the country. There are also reports that the Turkish army has sent rebels from Syria into the conflict to help the Azeris.
Iran, which borders the area to the south, also has interests to defend in a regional conflict.
Where is the situation going?
On Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the parties, after ten hours of talks in Moscow, had agreed to a ceasefire valid from lunchtime local time. According to Lavrov, the parties also agree to start peace talks.
Despite their different interests, Russia and Turkey may try to cooperate in conflict resolution in the same way as they have in Syria, where they are on opposite sides but relate to each other on the basis of a common platform.
Even in the conflict in Libya, Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides and are related to each other, along with the influence of Western powers.
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