Landslides Caused Disaster in Uttarakhand Show New Findings

At around 11 a.m. local time, on Sunday, February 7, a large batch fell off a mountain in the Himalayas in the Chamoli district of the Indian state of Uttarakhand. The landslide occurred from an altitude of over 5,600 meters, the rupture surface was just over half a kilometer long, 550 meters. Rocks and rock ice collapsed nearly two kilometers into the Rishiganga River valley below.

The first theory was that a glacier had collapsed. But the theory has changed since experts from around the world analyzed satellite images that clearly show that a large part of Mount Roti has collapsed.

Researchers have long warned Because disasters like this will become more common due to climate change when thawing of permafrost makes the soil more unstable, shows a report from the UN IPCC climate panel.

– A preliminary calculation made by me and my colleague Simon Gascoin indicates that some 25 million cubic meters of rock and ice fell, says Etienne Berthier, a glaciologist at the National Center for Scientific Research at the Toulouse Observatory, France.

The volume of 25 million cubic meters corresponds approximately to the content of 40 Globe sands. The friction in the landslide created heat that melted the ice and led to a torrent that flowed into the Rishiganga and Dhauliganga rivers.

The devastation was total. Several people were killed and injured, two power plant dams were demolished, roads, houses and livestock were razed. So far, some 60 dead have been found, but nearly 150 people are still missing.

– The rocky massifs were pulverized and gave rise to the huge clouds of dust that can be seen in the disaster movie clips. It is not yet entirely clear whether there were any hidden impounded bodies of water, such as a lake or water reservoir, in the valley that could contribute to the amount of water in the stream, says Mats Eriksson, a water and climate expert at the Institute Stockholm Water International. , SIWI.

– Satellite images show that there is still a large collision of rocks and ice over the landslide and up to the crest of the ridge. A reasonable question now is: will this large impact remain or will it even be reduced?

Mats Eriksson previously worked for several years for the Nepal-based intergovernmental organization ICIMOD, the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, which works with sustainable development, climate adaptation and water management in the region.

– The Chamoli incident has a very likely connection to global warming. You can see that the glaciers are rapidly diminishing in volume and extent, he says.

– I think we have to be much more careful in the future that something like this could happen. This type of risk must be taken into account when planning where houses will be built and bridges will be located. There is a fairly large gap between decisions made at the political level and the connection with the research community and the knowledge of the local population.

The Hindu Kush region of the Himalayas is particularly vulnerable to climate change. In high mountain areas, the change is faster than the world average. If global warming averages 1.5 degrees, it will be at least 1.8 degrees in the Himalayas, according to a report by ICIMOD.

On global warming It will be around 1.5 degrees, one third of the region’s glaciers will disappear by 2100. If warming reaches just over five degrees, just over two thirds of the glaciers will disappear.

– An extremely serious problem in this part of the world is precisely the water disasters caused by the weather, such as flash floods, landslides and floods. If you look at the statistics, it is in Asia where you have the highest number of people affected by water disasters, both in lives lost and in jobs and infrastructure, says Mats Eriksson.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya is called “the third pole” and is, after Antarctica and the Arctic, the area in the world with the largest permanent ice sheet. Snow and ice play a crucial role for people in the immediate area, as well as further afield.

The area is the source of ten of the largest rivers in Asia that are vital for food and water supplies, but also energy; many hydroelectric plants are located along the rivers. Approximately 240 million people depend directly on the ecosystem services provided by glaciers and rivers. About 1.65 billion people living in downstream areas also depend on water resources.

– Mountains are one of the water towers of Asia. Precipitation, snow and ice form a reservoir of water, fresh water also comes from springs, but if all the ice were to melt, it would be really bad. It’s not just about drinking water, but about water for agriculture, food supply and energy, says Mari Albihn, Sida’s environmental and climate advisor.

Sida is active in the region since the 1980s and collaborates with ICIMOD, among other things, in climate adaptation, since climate change is already evident.

– The risks are great and the people of the river valleys become very vulnerable. ICIMOD contributes with methods and innovations to reduce vulnerability, says Mari Albihn.

Electric power is part of the fight against poverty, but where states and businesses today invest in giant power plants that can affect the sensitive environment, ICIMOD works to ensure that the hydroelectric power plants being built are small and provide locally produced electricity. to residents and businesses locally. .

Another part of climate adaptation, which becomes increasingly important as the effects of climate change become more noticeable, is setting up warning systems.

– ICIMOD has created a fund where money can be requested to establish an alert system. For example, systems where you have automatic monitoring of water levels upstream and when levels rise rapidly, warning signals are sent downstream.

Mari Albihn has been to the area many times and is aware of the risks, but was still shocked by the disaster in Chamoli.

– We know that this can happen, but for my part I would not have thought on this scale. So many people were affected, the people who live there and the people who work hard at the power plants and on construction sites. It’s sad, she says.

I byn Raini, hit hard by the disaster, the Chipko movement, better known as Tree Hugger, started in the 1970s. When a company wanted to cut down forests in the mountains, the villagers protected the trees because their access to firewood, land and food was threatened.

Villagers knew that cutting down trees would increase the risk of erosion and landslides. Now, almost fifty years later, the town is severely affected by a disaster with a clear climate profile.

– It is clear that the Himalayas give us warning signals to humans. The question is: Will decision makers and community planners hear those signals, says Mats Eriksson?