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Italy was the first European country to be affected by the new corona virus, and the scenes that took place in some parts of the country were chaotic. Now the situation is the other way around, while the infection increases in countries like Spain and the United Kingdom, it is low in Italy.
There are none Simple answers to why, says Flavia Riccardo, a physician and infectious disease specialist at the ISS, which is the country’s equivalent of the Swedish Public Health Agency. Participate in the national group that monitors covid-19 and that proposes measures for ruling politicians.
– It was difficult when they asked me in March why the number of steps infected and it is difficult to answer why the situation is now the other way around, he says, and emphasizes that Italy has not won the fight against the infection.
Differences in people’s behavior and age structures are some of the factors that influence the spread of infection in different ways in different countries. In addition, travel is part of the explanation, according to Flavia Riccardo, who believes that the number of infections will continue to vary in European countries.
In Italy, the number fell ill now lying at a stable level for a couple of weeks.
– Travel and vacation activities affected the end of our summer season. But now that type of infection falls again. What we are seeing now are again different clusters related to households. But the number of cases is stable and the so-called r-number has dropped below 1.
This spring, ISS epidemiologists didn’t know how careful they had to be. But today they have a clearer picture of the dynamics of the infection and they see that parts of society can be opened without necessarily meaning more cases, according to Flavia Riccardo. The total closure that took place at the beginning of the year was a last resort.
– We found ourselves with an uncontrolled spread and then there was also more uncertainty about things that are now clearer. Completely closing the partnership is something we now want to avoid.
Since May has shops, restaurants, transportation systems and, more recently, schools have gradually opened in Italy, without leading to a second wave, Flavia Riccardo notes. The strategy is to work intensively to detect, trace, and interrupt the chains of infection in all new so-called clusters, that is, local outbreaks.
– We now know, for example, that the infection spreads very quickly in hospitals and we see more evidence of patterns of spread of infection within the population. It helps us when we try to give proportionate advice, so that we don’t shut down more than necessary, but still give recommendations to reduce infection where it is needed, he says.
The investment is large to increase the testing and monitoring capacity, as well as the number of hospital beds. There are also clearer and constantly updated recommendations on the use of mouth guards. In addition, general screening in hospitals has helped.
– If you have to go to the hospital for a condition not related to covid, you must now be examined and some cases are identified that way. Most of the cases that are now detected correspond to infected people who are asymptomatic. This is a big difference from the situation we had last spring. You cannot compare the curves from time to time, the situation is completely different.
However, several questions remain about the virus, such as how the infection situation will be affected by the fall flu season, and Flavia Riccardo remains concerned. She believes Italians should prepare for a second wave.
– My interpretation of a second wave is the uncontrolled spread of the infection, but we must do everything possible to avoid it. That is also what all countries are working on now, he says.
Point Which strategy is the most effective in the fight against covid-19 cannot be done, he says, emphasizing that Europe must face together the increasing number of cases.
– We do it in different ways, because in each country the population looks different. But we have no conclusion. Slowing the spread as much as we can until we have treatment and vaccination against the disease, which reduces the risk of ending up in intensive care, is what we all work for, in different ways.
The fact that advanced vaccine plans are underway means that we can see a distant limit as to how long we must endure the new rules of conduct. Flavia Riccardo feels cautiously hopeful, not because the infection in Italy is low, because it can change, but because there are structures to monitor and change our behavior.
– We had a very traumatic experience here, which facilitated communication with people. We have seen what covid-19 can do. From the beginning, the gravity of the situation was understood in Italy.
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