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Since the Paris Agreement was signed on December 12, 2015, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase. The extraction of fossil fuels, the main source of emissions, is estimated to increase by 2 percent per year until 2030. And every year, areas of forest as large as the UK are cut down; forest that would otherwise bind with large amounts of carbon dioxide.
But just in time for the fifth anniversary of the climate deal, several bright spots can still be seen, says Åsa Persson, head of research at the Stockholm Environment Institute.
– We are still very far from the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In any case, we are beginning to see that countries are taking action and that the work has begun. Big emitting countries also set long-term targets to reduce their emissions, says Åsa Persson.
Karin Bäckstrand, a member of the Council for Climate Policy and a professor of environmental research in social sciences at Stockholm University, also sees several positive signs. Although she generally sees herself as a twig, she adds.
– Emissions have increased, but at the same time the share of renewable energy has increased explosively. And big oil companies like BP have said there is no longer any profitability on fossil fuels, says Karin Bäckstrand.
A growing number of countries and regions have announced that they will be climate neutral by the middle of this century, such as the EU, China, Japan and South Korea.
Along with the United States, where incoming President Joe Biden has laid out ambitious climate plans, these countries today account for about two-thirds of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
– Recently, a study was presented showing that if all these plans are realized, we will still begin to approach the goal of two degrees, says Karin Bäckstrand.
National emission reduction targets, climate plans, are the central component of the Paris Agreement. The idea is that they are gradually refined every five years, so that the level of ambition gradually rises.
Under the agreement, countries must submit new climate plans for this year, or before the COP26 climate meeting, which should have taken place this year, but was postponed due to the pandemic until the end of next year. At that time, the text is not entirely clear. To date, the vast majority of countries have not submitted any new climate plans.
– Actually, it is a little clear written in the agreement what really applies. I think many will be delayed due to the covid crisis, but until COP26, I think everyone will have put forward their toughest plans, says Åsa Persson.
Then the next big challenge begins, she says.
– During these first five years, the focus has been mainly on obtaining ambitious goals by the countries. But after all, those are just goals. It is now important to focus on how these goals will become reality and how governments and other actors can be held accountable, says Åsa Persson.
The fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement is celebrated with the digital climate meeting Climate Ambition Summit 2020, organized, among others, by the United Kingdom, host country of the postponed COP26. The idea is that it will act as a springboard to increase the pace of global climate work, and invited parties are encouraged to submit stricter climate plans. At the time of writing, it is clear that the EU at least intends to come up with its most stringent sub-goal: reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
Read more: The digital climate summit will cause countries to increase their ambitions
