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Everyone has talked about herd immunity since the beginning of the pandemic in Sweden.
There have been many promises about when this could happen, but it has never been true.
Math professor Tom Britton came out early and said Sweden could achieve flock immunity as early as May, a statement he later regretted, he said in an interview with DN.
At present, there are no current figures showing what level of immunity you can achieve in Sweden. Anders Tegnell said during a press conference last week that they are working on a poll and are expected to submit the answer in “a couple of weeks.”
15-20 percent herd immunity now
Tom Britton is now more cautious in his analysis, but says he estimates that the immunity of flocks in Sweden at the moment should be between 15 and 20 percent.
– But there is great uncertainty in this. But it is not above 40 percent or below 10 percent.
Britton justifies his figures by saying that just over 10 percent should have been infected during the first wave, according to figures he heard himself.
– And so far not so many have been infected in the second wave. So maybe 15-20 percent right now.
It is clear that once Sweden starts vaccinating people, immunity in society will increase dramatically.
5 million need to be vaccinated
But how many Swedes must be vaccinated for Sweden to achieve herd immunity?
Tom Britton thinks the figure is five million; then we have achieved herd immunity, which means that between 60 and 70 percent of Swedes are immune to the crown.
– If it reaches more than 50 percent, the spread of the infection is much less. And if it reaches 70 percent, then there is almost no spread of the infection. So there may be the occasional little breakouts anyway, says Britton.
Sweden’s vaccine coordinator Richard Bergström has previously said that he expects Sweden to receive four million doses of vaccine during the first quarter. Since each person needs two doses, this means that two million Swedes can be vaccinated before Easter.
The Swedish Public Health Agency estimates that Sweden’s risk groups, which are first in line for a vaccine, consist of 2.6 million people.
Improved forecast
After that, it is time for the rest of the audience. The message before has been that healthy people can get vaccinated during the second half of the year, after the summer.
But now Bergström is changing his prognosis and believes that a total of five million people may have been vaccinated earlier.
– As it seems now, we have done it before the summer, he says.
And then you mean?
– Begining of June. The firecrackers here that everything will be approved and must be safe and effective. But with each passing week with positive results, it looks more and more promising.
This would mean that Sweden will reach herd immunity in the early summer of next year, which in turn means that the infection will stop drastically.
Richard Bergström also believes that anyone who wants should be able to get vaccinated before the summer is over.
– If everything is going according to plan, and nothing is delayed and everything is approved, then we have volumes for everyone who wants to get vaccinated in the middle of next year. So if it will be June, July or August, I don’t know. But that’s the time frame we’re talking about, he says.
