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How serious is the situation?
– It’s very serious. The message from the EU capitals has been that Hungary and Poland were bragging when they said they would veto. Both countries receive a lot of money from the EU and were convinced that the money would weigh more, but they were wrong. Just as the EU miscalculated Brexit a few years ago.
– This also shows the problem when the EU heads of state and government invent, as they did last summer on the budget and the crown package, that they reach a watered-down compromise that no one really knows what it means. And how countries interpret it completely differently. And when this becomes concrete legislation, the contradictions remain.
– This is basically the opinion of the EU: there is a deep gap here that may not even be bridged. And I think the EU is now paying the price because for years it has not been able to deal with member states that are going in an authoritarian direction, they have hidden these contradictions under the rug.
Sounds like a locked mode, can this be fixed?
– Now many are pinning their hopes on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is leading the EU’s work this semester, who will show her diplomatic skills, but I think it will be difficult. The EU can hardly withdraw and give in. Several EU countries, such as Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands, may find it difficult to get their parliaments to pass a budget where the requirements of a state governed by the rule of law are not included or are diluted, and the European Parliament hardly will be willing to back down.
– One possibility is to simply take the money out of the crown and make this purely intergovernmental, that is, Poland and Hungary are not involved, but the crisis countries of southern Europe still get their money. But that does not solve the problem with the long-term budget that will take effect from the turn of the year.
The long-term budget that has now been stopped was very favorable for Sweden. How will it affect us financially if a solution is not reached before the turn of the year?
– Then the current budget is expanded, but on the other hand, the Swedish discount on the membership fee disappears, which today amounts to approximately SEK 5 billion a year. Therefore, the Hungarian and Polish veto certainly affects Swedish taxpayers.
– But today it cannot be said exactly how this affects the Swedish membership fee, because EU spending may go down and then the Swedish fee will go down too.
