EU and US: it’s not obvious that everything will get better with Biden

Two EU leaders, the Hungarian Viktor Orbán and the Slovenian Janez Jansa, have publicly declared their support for Republican Donald Trump. Orbán writes in the official newspaper Magyar Nemzet that he does not want to recover the “moral imperialism” that characterizes the foreign policy of the democrats.

Jansa, prime minister of the homeland of the president’s wife, Melania Trump, claims on Twitter that Joe Biden would become a weak president and that “a free world desperately needs a strong America.”

https://twitter.com/JJansaSDS/status/1319567043218296833

So far, no other EU leader has openly taken sides in the US presidential elections. It is good diplomatic practice to let the people of a country decide the outcome.

But more EU heads of state and government probably want to see Biden as the winner, believes Steven Blockmans, a professor at the University of Amsterdam and head of questions on EU foreign relations at the Ceps think tank in Brussels.

Relations between the United States and the European Union have deteriorated dramatically during Trump’s tenure. The good contact that Representative Barack Obama had with Angela Merkel has turned into the opposite. For example, when the United States decided to transfer 12,000 soldiers from Germany, without first announcing Berlin.

Here are some controversial topics:

So. Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO and has questioned the guarantee of solidarity defense of the member states, the cornerstone of cooperation. French President Emmanuel Macron has called the NATO alliance “brain dead.” The organization obviously needs to be reformed.

“If Biden wins, the United States will not leave NATO, but will continue to signal that allies in Europe are investing very little in their defenses,” Blockmans said.

Commerce. Trump has declared the EU an enemy in trade terms and negotiations on a free trade agreement were frozen when he took office. But the Democrats are not strong advocates of free trade, even though Joe Biden has lamented the “trade war” between the parties. Cecilia Malmström, a former EU commissioner and now a candidate for OECD secretary general, believes that Biden will prioritize other issues if he wins.

– Trade negotiations will not re-emerge, at least not in the short term. On the other hand, the tone of the conversation may be better with Biden, he says.

China. The Middle Kingdom is Trump’s main enemy and the United States wants to join the EU in that fight. Criticism of China is widespread within the electorate and also in the Democratic Party. With Biden as president, politics will be tough on China, predicts Cecilia Malmström.

Steven Blockmans believes that Europe must find its way to China.

– Europe should try to reach an investment agreement with China at the same time that it has conflicts with Hong Kong, the Uyghurs, human rights, etc., he says.

Iran. One of Barack Obama’s greatest foreign policy achievements came in 2015, when five countries and the EU signed the agreement with Iran. The agreement was aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. With that, the sanctions disappeared. Trade with Iran increased. Trump rescinded the deal in 2018. If Joe Biden, Obama’s vice president, wins, he will learn how to restore it, both Malmström and Blockmans believe.

– It would lead to a massive increase in trade between Europe and Iran, he says.

The weather. Joe Biden has said that if elected, the United States will remain in the Paris Agreement. The EU is hopeful that the United States will follow in the footsteps of the Europeans and aim to be climate neutral by 2050. China and Japan have recently made decisions in that direction.

https://twitter.com/TimmermansEU/status/1320641256159092738

– It is very important for Europe that Biden re-enter the Paris Agreement. He has also expressed that the United States should be much more involved in multilateral work and in international organizations, which can be interpreted as WTO, UNESCO and more, says Cecilia Malmström.

In short, with Biden, climate policy, the relationship with Iran and international organizations are changing.

– However, he will face stronger and more radical opposition than Obama’s. This limits Biden’s room for maneuver. It will not be a return to the traditional pro-European foreign policy that many in Europe are hoping for, notes Steven Blockmans.

He and Cecilia Malmström agree that it may be some time before Biden tackles the issues of the conflict with Europe.

– If you look at the documents of the Democratic Party and what Biden has said and written, it is not Europe that is at the top of the agenda. These are, of course, the problems of national politics, says Cecilia Malmström.

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