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Other respiratory infections, such as colds and flu, have their peak season in winter and their incidence declines in spring, but the WHO believes there is no reason to believe that weather or climate has a major impact on the spread of sars- cov-2.
An aspect that suggests that the spread of infection in Sweden may accelerate again is that the proportion of Swedes with antibodies is far from the levels considered necessary for flock immunity to emerge. The ratio varies depending on who is getting tested, but in the Stockholm area, the Public Health Agency compilation showed that about 14 percent of antibody tests performed at week 36 were positive.
However, as I have noted above, antibody tests may not provide a complete picture of population immunity, and there may be a much higher proportion who have so-called T-cell protection, which may give some resistance to the virus.
After a spring of distance education, upper secondary schools, colleges, universities and other adult education are returning to a more regular activity. This leads to reduced physical distance and increased congestion on public transport.
Increased congestion can also due to the fact that many have returned to their jobs after working at home for a long time. And even if recommendations in Sweden are easier to maintain in the long term than more draconian measures, such as full closure, our compliance may decline in the long term.
So far, however, we seem to be holding up relatively well. In the latest survey conducted by the Swedish Civil Protection and Emergency Planning Agency (MSB) in collaboration with Kantar Sifo, 90 percent of respondents responded that they follow the recommendations both today and a week or two ago.
Other factor What really speaks to a more favorable situation this fall than the one we had last spring is that today we are more prepared for new outbreaks and that we have more knowledge about how the virus spreads. Therefore, some measures have been added that mean that people in risk groups are better protected.
The testability is also higher than ever and now that the overall social spread is so low, there are good conditions to do general testing, identify potential clusters and, through infection monitoring, break the chains of infection before the infection becomes widespread and those at risk are affected.
