[ad_1]
LEADER. The president seems to have abandoned his line of keeping the market in a good mood and is increasingly committed to inciting groups against each other.
Leader:Lotta Engzell-Larsson
After the debate among the candidates for the US presidency, on Wednesday morning European time, the stock markets in Europe fell and also the trading of US equity futures. The falls were moderate but wide. And the Vix volatility index, where around 20 indicates low volatility, which is now up to 27, is expected to rise to more than 30 during October to December.
Not surprisingly, tonight’s debate has created confusion in the financial markets. He completely ignored potential conflicts that don’t end when election day has passed.
Donald Trump has always focused on the stock market and the economy, it has been his yardstick for his own success. And so far, the markets have been pretty happy. But now it seems to have completely lost track of what they need to function.
Because the market doesn’t want a race war. Trump’s statement in the debate against the far-right Proud Boys’ movement to back off and stand by is nothing more than an invitation to intensify the inter-group struggle in their own country. It awakens a deep distrust.
The market does not want a prolonged electoral process, where Donald Trump refuses to acknowledge the outcome of the elections. In the debate he repeated what he had said earlier, that postal ballots are not handled correctly. He said the process of naming a winner could take months. The president rejects the system that won him the last time if he does not do it again. This is how the anti-liberal leaders and warlords behave.
The market wants the damage caused by the pandemic to be limited. Here one must be careful when judging different strategies. Countries have done it differently and the results depend on many factors. Is it okay to close it or keep it open? Trump’s problem, however, is that he did not have a transparent strategy, that he first concealed the pandemic even though he understood the risks, that he runs over the experts and promises vaccines and cures even though he cannot make such promises. This creates great uncertainty about the recovery.
The market can sometimes be amoral almost immoral, but it is also its strength, it wants peace and tranquility just like the citizens. Their interests do not always coincide with the broad strata of the citizenry, but here they do.
Ironically, Trump wouldn’t have to turn around like he does, but he could continue in the economy. Because while he has the unfortunate tendency to call everything he’s done “historic,” the United States has done well economically during its time, regardless of whether it is direct merit or not.
The BBC has shown that growth was 2.5 percent on average during Trump’s first three years, compared to 2.3 percent during Obama’s last three years. The stock market measured as the Dow Jones Index (the 30 largest companies) fell precipitously this spring, but has recovered.
Unemployment began to fall under Obama, from 10 to 5 percent, and has continued to fall under Trump. Before the pandemic, it was at an all-time low of 3.5 percent, now it is at 8.4 percent, which is low internationally (the figures, however, are affected by the fact that the supply of workmanship looks different).
Poverty has decreased. Since 1980, the proportion of the poor has hovered around 12 to 15 percent of the population. In 2019, it was at an all-time low of 10.5 percent. However, blacks are overrepresented, where the proportion is 18.8 percent. However, the big picture remains. Trump’s economy has done well and benefited the poor as well.
Challenger Joe Biden is committed to his coalition with Bernie Sanders and his supporting troops and promises big tax increases. A restoration of corporation tax from 21 percent, as Trump reduced it, to 28 percent is higher than in comparable countries and would affect businesses very negatively. Biden should also consider that his compatriots in general would rather have the conditions to fend for themselves than receive a grant.
Most important of all, however, is that if the United States wants to call itself a true democracy, it must implement federal electoral reform in the future. Residents in all states must have the same and good conditions to vote. No one should be deprived of their right to vote because they are or have been in prison. Too much inequality breeds rebellion. It does not benefit the people, neither the rich nor the poor.
