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Like Sweden, Denmark has had the objective of vaccinating all the adults who wish to do so before the end of the first half of the year, more precisely before June 27. But the delay in vaccine deliveries means that our neighboring country now chooses to postpone the deadline three weeks earlier.
The new goal is for vaccinations to be completed by July 18, Politiken writes, referring to an email from the Health Ministry to Folketing. Among other things, the authority does not expect deliveries of the yet unapproved vaccines from Curevac until June.
Sweden is based on the same information from vaccine manufacturers and the EU, but makes a different assessment than the neighboring country.
– I don’t think there is any reason to change any objective. Then something real can happen, like Janssen not getting approval or a vaccine factory catching fire. But we don’t have a huge margin either, says national vaccine coordinator Richard Bergström.
Why do their evaluations differ?
– This is interesting. Each country has access to the same information, but of course you choose how you interpret it and that determines the valuation. I think, for example, that the approval of the Curevac vaccine will pass very quickly. Such factors come into play, says Richard Bergström.
At the same time, forecasts have both Curevac and Janssen deliveries have also changed in Sweden. Until last week, the Swedish Public Health Agency estimated that 458,000 doses would come from both vaccine manufacturers in April. In total, the authority estimated that 3,365,000 doses would be delivered during the month.
But since then, total forecasts have been posted for April, with more than half a million doses. According to current estimates, Curevax will deliver 50,000 doses and Janssen around 230,000.
– We have made a more realistic assessment of how the distribution will look within the quarter. The total figures are the same. Nothing has changed there. But we’re more realistic about when the doses will arrive, says Richard Bergström.
He calls the Danes too “pessimistic” when it comes to vaccine evaluation.
– It is a matter of taste the large safety margins that the authorities want to establish so as not to risk disappointing people. We could have hoped to finish vaccination in September, but then all of a sudden there may be a lot of vaccines in June that no one is ready for, says Richard Bergström.
– For me it has always been important that all the actors are prepared when the vaccine arrives.
At the end of February 19 out of 21 regions for DN stated that they can still reach the goal of vaccinating the entire adult population until the end of the first half of the year, as long as new vaccine deliveries are not delayed. Later, several regional vaccine coordinators pointed out the importance of doses being distributed evenly during the second trimester and preferably as soon as possible.
Emma Spak, head of SKR’s health and medical care section, emphasizes that the regions are still ready, if the vaccine doses arrive.
– There is no obstacle to the capacity of the regions. Currently, they are capable of a total of 1.2 million vaccinations a week, and that is a capacity that can be increased even more, says Emma Spak.
– What is crucial are the vaccine deliveries. To meet the target, we need additional deliveries in March and April than announced.
How likely is it?
– It is clear that starting from the premise that there have been many delays, there are great challenges based on the current forecast. This requires an increase in doses within the EU. Every time manufacturers postpone or mark deliveries, it becomes more problematic to see a way forward in which we have access to the required amount of vaccine, says Emma Spak.
Richard Bergström does not rule out the possibility of Sweden receiving more vaccines than current forecasts indicate. Both Astra Zeneca and Pfizer / Biontech have upside potential, he believes.
– Astra Zeneca says they will be able to deliver 180 million doses to the EU during the second quarter. There we are a little more pessimistic, in the forecasts of the Public Health Agency we expect 150 million. Therefore, there may be more doses than we expect.
– This can also be applied to Pfizer / Biontech, which is now commissioning its facilities in Germany.
