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On April 10 and 17, 115 people died in Sweden with a crown.
Before Christmas, many, or more, could die, according to estimates by epidemiologist David Steadson.
– We surpassed 100 daily deaths before Christmas, although it will not be visible in the statistics until after New Year, he says.
Steadson, who has been frequently quoted in the Australian media and lives in Sweden, believes that the Swedish strategy has been insufficient to stop the rampant death toll.
David Steadson Figures
Epidemiologist David Steadson’s death per day curve is based on the proportion of infected people who die in different age groups and when the majority of infected people die. In this way, he says that you can calculate how many will die in three weeks.
The R number is also taken into account.
Added to this, it assumes the delay around the deaths reported by the Public Health Agency.
Sweden has focused too much on protecting fragile groups and that health care should not be overloaded, he says, rather than suppressing infection throughout society.
– Most other countries assumed the virus was still so unknown and deadly that it was too risky to let it spread, he says.
David Steadson believes that Sweden now “must change strategy”.
– So far the measures in Sweden may have slowed down the process, but it is clear that we are going in the wrong direction. What is being done is simply not enough, and we now know that effective vaccines are on the way. We only have to save the lives and health of thousands of people before then.
The second wave “will exceed the peak”
Researcher Marc Bevand has reached the same figure, and believes that Sweden will exceed 100 deaths on December 11.
“After today’s update from the Swedish Public Health Agency, I predict that Sweden will top the top with the 100 deaths they had in April,” he wrote on Twitter on November 18.
https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1329133636851953665?s=20
Math professor Tom Britton hasn’t done his own calculations on this, but he believes that the spike around the death toll for the second wave may occur in about two weeks.
You don’t believe in as many deaths as the April peak.
– I think it will be at most in two weeks. But maybe half of what it was last time, but there is great uncertainty.
You see two differences now compared to this spring: some immunity and that fewer people die thanks to more effective care.
– This means that this time it should be a small hump, he says.
See also:
The vaccine researcher answers your questions on Expressen TV.
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