[ad_1]
The fact that today’s most intelligent brains imagine a return to “normal” conditions reflects the collective collapse of the imagination. Writes the two researchers HT Goranson and Beth Cardier.
Sars-CoV-2 is a new virus that is more dangerous than most other infections, but has similarities to other pests and pandemics that humans have faced, the article’s authors write.
This is a discussion post. Writers are responsible for opinions.
Covid-19 has hit hard. Governments and the Ministry of Defense see the pandemic as an example of the kinds of challenges from which modern societies must be able to recover. Strategists turn to experts from companies and universities for answers to what is needed so that similar new threats cannot surprise vital but ill-prepared organizations. They want to know how a society becomes more resilient.
Covid-19 is probably the least shocking hit we get. After all, viruses are subject to the laws of physics and biology. It has not been studied and affects us arbitrarily. Sars-CoV-2 is a new virus that has proven more dangerous than most other infections, but still has similarities to other pests and pandemics that humans have faced throughout history.
Most countries have managed covid-19 with the help of their regular healthcare organizations and have made some adjustments. Governments have also reacted predictably to the economic consequences of the pandemic and followed the models they used in the past, such as during the 2008 financial crisis. There is not much in the current crisis that could not have been planned.
The problem is that Today’s discussions are not about a new situation; they are about recovery.
Both national and world leaders are fully focused on returning to the conditions that prevailed before the pandemic broke out. This is not a sensible attitude; More serious crises await humanity. What they are about is not very difficult to decipher.
As the climate changes, politics become more unpredictable and armed conflicts spread to new regions. A new pandemic could coincide with a cyber war that destroys vital infrastructure with a single click. Add all the provocative voices on social media. We are closer to a completely new situation in the world than we think.
The threats that we have to face cannot be understood as a virus, a climate change or an economic crisis. Rather, the risk is that the consequences of a given crisis are exacerbated by other crises and that together they have more negative consequences than we have experienced before, possibly exacerbated by malicious human actors. The result is worse than the sum of the parts and far more dire than anything imagined by today’s crisis managers.
Countries that want Being prepared cannot be content to repair poor infrastructure and create toothless new institutions when this pandemic ends. The key to future resilience is a comprehensive capacity for change.
One roadblock is that current measurement methods and systems for decision support are based on how formal or logical structures organize facts: with a sufficient amount of data, we can develop systems that build scenarios based on In physics and engineering, even for something as complex as viruses. or the weather.
But when it comes to anticipating human activities or political turning points, our systems are not enough, because we cannot assume that future crises will be similar to those of today.
If you believe Since political leadership has neither the will nor the capacity to increase the resilience of society significantly, it is close to leaving the problem to the market. But the built-in resilience of a system requires the entire society to learn the psyche of the narrator, so that each surprise triggers a new understanding of the situation and a new vision of the future.
The fact that the smartest brains in politics and science today imagine a return to “normal” conditions reflects the collective collapse of the imagination. As a society, we must begin to think more creatively about how existing resources and different forms of social and economic connections can be combined to solve new problems.
Political leaders should work out trade agreements between neighboring regions so that systems that facilitate cooperation today can be used tomorrow to establish protection.
In computer games with many participants, collaborations between groups are generally praised and rewarded with a sense of greater togetherness. Values such as belonging and environmental prosperity must be incorporated into current measurement methods and models, so that those values are prioritized regardless of what happens.
Science and engineering is not enough to save us; the arts and humanities contain many necessary tools but lack technical knowledge. The commitment of people in all areas of life is necessary so that, as a society, we can achieve a sufficiently broad and deep capacity for change. Our different knowledge and skills must be combined because the problems we face are intertwined.
We need to start inventing new words and developing a language for change. We must learn to rethink and think of new things.
HT Goranson, former Vice President of the Institute for Integrated Intelligent Systems at Griffith University in Australia and a researcher at the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
Beth cardier, a researcher at Trusted Autonomous Systems Defense in Australia.
Translation: Karen Söderberg
Project union
