Corona virus professor: Stockholm can achieve collective immunity in May



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Although Britton's forecasts may seem relaxing, that does not mean that the epidemic settled in Sweden in May. He has only studied the situation in Stockholm.

Although Britton’s forecasts may seem relaxing, that does not mean that the epidemic settled in Sweden in May. He has only studied the situation in Stockholm. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg / TT

In addition to the reproduction rate It is an uncertainty of darkness, that is, how many people carry the virus but never get tested or show more severe symptoms. Tom Britton uses figures of death in his calculations.

It is based on the number of deaths in the disease, and with a fixed measure of mortality in viral disease, you get an estimate of how many people are infected. In the study, he assumes a death rate of 0.3 percent, according to international research.

– If your mortality varies a little, it will not have a great impact on the prognosis. I have not used the number of reported cases, because it has little to do with the number of infected cases.

The death rate in covid-19 is still uncertain, because no one knows how many people have unwittingly carried the virus. If the darkness is greater, the mortality rate is lower.

To discover In the dark, immunity studies, called antibody studies, have been conducted in various parts of the world. A not yet reviewed and recently published study of Santa Clara in the USA. USA It shows that an estimated 48,000 people in the area have had the virus, compared to more than 1,000 tests.

I don’t know the situation in other parts of the country, but I suppose the herd’s immunity comes in the summer or in a second wave after the summer.

Another study, from Boston, shows that one in 200 randomly selected people in the East American metropolis carried a third of the virus. Many of the people had little or no symptoms, writes The Boston Globe.

But while Britton’s forecasts may seem calm, that doesn’t mean the epidemic settled in Sweden in May. It has only studied the situation in Stockholm, and the rest of the country has not been as extensive. In most places, the herd’s immunity may be further away.

– I do not control the situation in other parts of the country, but I suppose that the immunity of the flock will come in the summer or in a second wave after the summer, if the virus spreads worse in hot weather, says Tom Britton.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell He has previously expressed himself positively to Tom Britton’s forecasts, and tells TV4 that Britton’s latest estimate may very well be true.

– We are in the same evaluations as him, says Tegnell.

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