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On October 20, the Swedish Public Health Agency decided to establish stricter general guidelines in Uppsala county. The population was urged to avoid contact with other people who were not from the same household, to avoid traveling by public transport, and was advised against “organizing or participating in a similar party or social gathering.” A week later, the councils were strengthened in Skåne and then in other regions, including Stockholm.
It is clear that the spread of infection it remains very strong and both hospitalizations and deaths are increasing rapidly. On Thursday, another 40 people were reported to have died from Covid-19.
But an analysis of data from public transport, Google’s mobile networks and Telia already shows a certain change in behavior. Fewer workplaces, less shopping and entertainment, and fewer trips on public transportation. The trend applies in several geographical areas, especially in the metropolitan regions of Stockholm, Malmö and Gothenburg.
When it comes to home work, the trend in the fall has been for more people at work and fewer at home. But after strict advice, a trend breakout can be seen. In week 45, workplace presence returned to the level of mid-September, before the infection accelerated again. Week 44 was even lower, but it was probably due to the fall break, when many take a break. This is based on data from Google, which has published such measurements since the beginning of this spring.
Even greater is the effect in restaurants, shopping malls, libraries and cinemas, which in the Google survey is called shopping and entertainment. At week 45, registered visits were the lowest during the fall, in some places the lowest since the first weeks of the pandemic this spring.
The data on public transport in Stockholm give a similar picture.
“There were 15 percent fewer tickets blocked last week, week 45, compared to week 43,” writes Claes Keisu, a press communicator for the Swedish Transport Administration in the Stockholm Region in an email to DN. “The figures from Monday to Tuesday this week indicate that travel continues to decline. We interpret this as a clear sign that the Stockholmers have brought the municipalities that attended on October 29. In total, the number of barrier crossings in commuter train and metro traffic is now below 50 percent of what they were at the same time last year ”.
In Uppsala, trips were below normal already before, but after strict advice, a further reduction could be seen. However, the effect is less than in Stockholm: about 5 percent on city traffic and just over 10 percent on regional traffic, according to UL, which operates the region’s public transport.
“The latter is mainly due to distance education in schools,” writes Helena Klange, UL’s press manager. He adds that measurement is made more difficult by the fact that the entrance doors of buses, where passengers are generally counted, are currently kept closed.
A decrease is also observed in the Gothenburg region. Trips are now 40 percent lower than in a normal year, compared to 30-35 percent earlier this fall.
– It’s hard to say for sure why, but a reasonable assumption is that people have obeyed the stricter advice and restrictions that went into effect during week 44, says Västtrafik press director Mette Ramquist.
Skånetrafiken was unable to provide any information.
Google’s figures should be interpreted with some caution. They are based on measurements from Google applications and do not include all people, not even all mobile device users. But during the year, data from local traffic, Google and other sources showed a consistent picture of the movement patterns of people in Sweden.
This also applies to Telia Crowd Insights data, based on mobile network analysis. There a marked decrease in travel could be seen in week 45. Travel within Stockholm and Gothenburg was down 14 percent, in Malmö by 13 percent. This compared to week 43, that is, before the fall holidays.
– It’s a big and fast reduction in travel, behavior changed at the beginning overnight, says Kristofer Ågren, Telia’s head of data analysis, in a press release.
This spring could not see such a rapid adaptation to the new advice, according to research from the Stockholm School of Economics. Then a study of store visits showed that the advice had an effect, but with a clear delay.
– One interpretation is that there is a different willingness to change behavior than last spring, says Sara Rosengren, a marketing professor at the Business School.
– In addition, many now have personal experiences of the disease, which can affect the will to change.
At Thursday’s press conference, the Public Health Agency said its data points in the same direction, with, among other things, more chores and fewer purchases in stores.
