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The world’s largest rain forest is about to be lost.
This is the opinion of the world leading Brazilian climate scientist Carlos Nobre.
– We are very close to the critical point, he says.
Carlos Nobre is a professor and climate scientist at the University of Saõ Paulo and has been understanding the Amazon for forty years.
In his research, he investigated the so-called “tipping point” of the rain forest, the breaking point where the forest begins to destroy itself.
In recent years, it has become increasingly clear that the Amazon is approaching that limit. Within a generation, most of the remaining rain forest may have begun to transform into shrubs and savannas. A process that cannot be stopped once it has started.
Two factors are driving the rain forest to its breaking point: climate change in the world that generates higher temperatures and deforestation in the Amazon that produces less rain. They mutually reinforce each other, so the journey to the breaking point goes faster, according to Carlos Nobre.
The harvest has increased significantly
Since Jair Bolsonaro took over as president of Brazil on January 1, 2019, the harvest rate has increased considerably, according to data from the Brazilian space research institute INPE.
During the past year, the Amazon was simultaneously struck by extensive fires. Most were planted by farmers who wanted to clean up the land but spread because the soil was too dry. The fires now threaten to further exacerbate the drought, in a series of self-reinforcing processes.
Carlos Nobre is a professor and climatologist at the University of Saõ Paulo.
Photo: Eraldo Peres / AP
In 2019, extensive forest fires occurred in the Amazon.
“If these factors are combined, there are strong reasons for the Amazon,” says Carlos Nobre by phone from Saõ Paulo.
President Bolsonaro often returns to want to “develop” the Amazon. What have climatologists seen of this at the site?
– Some thought that he was only expressing himself radically to win votes. Unfortunately, it turned out to be so bad. His attempt to pass legislation that will open reserves for the management of mining and livestock is very, very worrying, says Carlos Nobre.
Disastrous consequences
The consequences of the transformation of the Amazon into savanna will be disastrous. The numbers of species are disappearing at the same time that Amazon’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide decreases dramatically and greenhouse gases end up in the atmosphere.
Something that in turn would accelerate climate change on Earth with more extreme weather, fires, melting ice, and rising global seas as a result.
“The world should be very concerned,” says Carlos Nobre.
Photo: Leo Correa / AP
A reptile dead on the ground in Pará, Brazil, a state that is largely covered by the rain forest. The area is becoming warmer and drier.
About 17 percent of the Amazon has already been cut. The threshold is somewhere between 20 and 25 percent, according to Carlos Nobre.
How long do we have before the Amazon begins to transform into a savanna?
– There are no exact figures. But probably between 15 and 30 years old, he says.
Photo: ANDREAS BARDELL
The Amazon can begin to become a savanna in 15 years.
“Very rushed”
Do you think it is possible to save the Amazon?
– Yes, but that requires little time before a total stop for the entire harvest. And that simultaneously we begin to replant damaged forests. Furthermore, the world must gain control over climate change. He is in a hurry.
What can people outside Brazil do to prevent the rain forest from being destroyed?
– If the world threatens not to buy Brazilian meat, soybeans, and leather, large companies will be forced to liquidate among their suppliers. It will have a great effect. In the long term, it is about supporting the protection of forests and replanting projects and contributing to the development of the potential of biodiversity, for example in relation to medicines, so that the people of the Amazon can participate in the economic development of in a sustainable way, says Carlos Nobre.
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