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The corona pandemic could bring a rush for holiday shopping.
Tight restrictions mean that sales are at risk of falling by 12 percent, according to HUI Research’s annual forecast.
But the situation is difficult to assess.
– We’ll see a whole new kind of holiday shopping, says CEO Jonas Arnberg.
That holiday shopping breaks records is often as true as the verse line “Ring bell, ring” is read in SVT on New Year’s Eve.
But 2020, as is well known, is not just any year.
The analysis company HUI Research writes in its recent forecast that the desire to buy “never in human memory” has been so uncertain.
– Christmas shopping 2020 is, in addition to restrictions, on three things: consumer transfers, capacity tests and creative solutions, says CEO Jonas Arnberg in a comment.
– If everything is correct, we have a new Christmas business record in sight. Otherwise, we are heading for a possible loss of sales.
May decline or reach new heights
HUI Research presents three different buying scenarios. In the most optimistic way, reducing the costs of travel and restaurant visits increases commerce by five percent. In the bleaker outlook ahead, tight restrictions contribute to a drop of up to 12 percent.
Between these two is a main scenario where sales increase by one percent. However, for non-rare products, a decrease of two percent is expected.
– Retailers are no longer competing only on products and prices, but also with safe visits to stores and flexible delivery solutions, says Jonas Arnberg.
Billions of turnover
In 2019, the Christmas trade had a turnover of more than 80,000 million Swedish crowns. If there is a modest one percent increase this year, that number will stand at $ 81.7 billion. This corresponds to 7,894 SEK per person.
In all scenarios, HUI Research expects the grocery trade to be strong. It is also a consequence of the pandemic.
– Like the rest of the year, Christmas 2020 will be characterized by the home trend. We’ll probably decorate more for Christmas, bake more lollipops, and cook our own Christmas food, says Jonas Arnberg.
Photo: TT
Holiday shopping is believed to be affected by the corona pandemic.
Facts: three scenarios in the forecast
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Less travel increases trade: In total, the growth of holiday shopping increases by 5 percent, of which 7 percent for groceries and 4 percent for non-rare items. Fewer trips abroad, restaurant visits, and cultural events contribute to momentum.
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Slight reduction due to infection: The main scenario with a total growth of 1 percent, – 2 percent for non-rare products and 5 percent for groceries. The reduction is related to the fact that retailers can take action at the same time that consumers abstain from a certain part of consumption.
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Restrictions take a big drop: The nightmare scenario with a total decline of 12 percent, of which nondurable goods collapse by 22 percent while groceries increase by three percent. Much tighter restrictions due to the high spread of infection and many closed stores hit hard.
Source: TT
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