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Why is the fifth plenary session, which started on Monday and ends on Thursday, important?
In the fifth plenary session, the absolute summit of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee, will meet to decide on a new five-year plan for China.
The meeting will show what economic and social policy the world’s second-largest economy wants to pursue in the future and will also reveal what economic vision China’s leaders have for the country in the next 15 years.
This year’s meeting is said to be marked by the turmoil that has engulfed China of late.
The country’s relationship with the West, especially the United States, is becoming increasingly strained. Suspicion manifests itself in everything from Sweden’s decision to shut down Huawei from 5G network expansion to US plans to introduce restrictions on US computer chip makers supplying important components to China.
At the same time, covid-19 broke out in China at the beginning of the year. Now the country has gained control of the spread of the infection, something for which one learns to praise oneself during the meeting.
What political direction can we count on in China’s plan for 2021-2025?
The meeting takes place behind closed doors and it takes time before the rest of the world knows exactly what has been decided. Only in March, when China’s “parliament”, the People’s Congress, passes the five-year plan, will it be made public. But on Thursday, when the meeting ends, some parts are expected to leak to state media.
From the speeches made by Xi Jinping earlier this year, it can be concluded that China will focus on a change that makes the country less dependent on foreign countries. On several occasions it has launched the economic concept of “dual circulation”. The bottom line is that China should depend more on its own economy, both in terms of production of inputs for industry and consumption.
The concept must be seen in light of the growing suspicion of China in the West and the US sanctions against China, which have shown how sensitive it is for Chinese companies to depend on foreign countries.
To cope with a more country-driven economy, a series of reforms must also be implemented. This includes the hukou system, which regulates the rights of migrant workers. As is the case today, those who move from the countryside to work in the cities are not covered by the social welfare network. If China wants to keep consumption alive, those rules must be changed.
The meeting is also expected to provide more concrete answers on how China will achieve the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. A plan announced by Xi Jinping in September without being particularly specific. Great efforts are required here. China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide and today coal accounts for more than half of the country’s electricity supply.
Can China maintain the high growth rate that the country has had for a long period?
The country, of course, has been affected economically by covid-19 and this year, for the first time since 2002, it has lowered a growth target. But for a few months now, the wheels are rolling again. China stands out and is expected to be the only major economy in the world this year to experience positive growth. In the third quarter of this year, GDP rose 4.9 percent and the IMF expects growth of about 2 percent for the full year.
But in the future, an aging population and low birth rates will slow the economy, with most expecting China to lower its growth target to around 5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in recent years. five years. At the same time, the importance of how high growth is likely to be lessened. Instead, the Communist Party is expected to emphasize the importance of scaling the value chain and being a world leader in high-tech development.
