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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been unsolved for almost 30 years. Do we now have a solution?
It depends on who you ask. This is an agreement that Armenia signed with the knife to the throat after Azerbaijan took the historically important city of Shusha, as well as much of the buffer zone that Armenia had occupied from the Azerbaijani territory around Nagorno-Karabakh. In practice, the agreement was imposed by Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey. Russia, Armenia’s military ally, has been passive in the conflict.
What does the agreement mean?
Azerbaijan maintains control of Shusha, a city of cultural and historical importance with a large Azerbaijani population before the war. Furthermore, Azerbaijan retains control of all areas occupied by Nagorno-Karabakh, including villages with Armenian populations such as Hedrut. In addition, Armenia will withdraw its troops from the part of the buffer zone that is still under control. In practice, Nagorno-Karabakh is mutilated. The fact that Azerbaijan controls Shusha gives them a superior military strategic advantage: Shusha is located over Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh (which the Armenians can keep) and can be easily fired from there.
All refugees can return, something Armenians have so far stubbornly refused to accept because they fear becoming a minority in mixed areas.
What does this mean for the region?
For the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, it is a great victory. Sjusja’s symbolic value cannot be underestimated. In his address to the nation, Aliyev said, among other things: “What are you saying now, Pasjinjan?”
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pasjinjan, who mocked Aliyev last spring by visiting Shusha and performing Armenian folk dances in front of television cameras, is now being skinned at home. Already last night, protesters in Yerevan demanded his resignation. Pasjinjan calls the deal painful, but says there were no alternatives. A change of political power in Yerevan is likely to be expected soon. However, Aliyev, a dictator who systematically restricts freedom of expression and harasses the opposition, will be more popular than ever.
