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In a statement, Abiy Ahmed said that “the last red line has been crossed” and that the regime is forced into a military confrontation.
– We have used all means to prevent a military attack on the TPLF, but a war cannot be avoided only with the help of goodwill and the decision of one side, but if both sides choose peace, says Abiy.
Provinsen Tigray it is controlled by the TPLF party that wants to escape from the Ethiopian federation. The consequences of a large-scale war are difficult to foresee.
● Ethiopia is today the second largest population in Africa by population with 110 million inhabitants.
● The capital Addis Ababa is the African equivalent of Geneva, home to the headquarters of the African Union and Ethiopian Airlines is the center of the continental transport sector.
● Surrounding Ethiopia are several of the most conflict-ridden countries in Africa, and a large-scale conflict in Ethiopia can quickly have secondary effects.
Internally, the situation in Ethiopia is as delicate as it was in Yugoslavia in 1991, and the conflict with Tigray could be the beginning of a more extensive disintegration.
Photo: Sergi Reboredo
Photo: Joe Schaber / AP
So what is the conflict about? Yes? Tigray became world famous in the early 1980s, when the province was hit hardest by the famine that would kill 1.2 million lives in Ethiopia and spawned fundraising galas like Live Aid. Then a civil war broke out that greatly aggravated the hunger situation. Eritrean guerrilla army EPLF and Tigray-based TPLF, formed in the 1970s, fought against the communist Derg junta in Addis Ababa.
These two “David” managed to defeat Goliath, the Addis Ababa junta, and in the early 1990s Eritrea gained its independence as the TPLF, along with various regional movements, took control of the rest of Ethiopia. The country was governed under the slogan “ethnic federalism”, where each ethnic group appointed its own delegates to a general coalition called the EPRDF. This was led by TPLF member Meles Zenawi and TPLF was strongly dominant in the state and in the military, even though the Tigers make up only 5 percent of the population.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been bitter since the 1990s, when war broke out. But after the change of power in Addis Ababa, it has improved considerably. The picture shows a parade during the war against Eritrea in 2000.
Photo: Pier Paolo Cito
At the same time he had a bitter war it broke out in 1998 between Ethiopia and Eritrea, over control of the border town of Badme. The war was to last 20 years and pitted the former allies TPLF and EPLF against each other. The entire border area was militarized for decades and a significant part of the Ethiopian army has been permanently stationed in the provincial capital of Tigray, Mekelle.
Meles Zenawi died in 2012, leaving a great political void. Growing social unrest and demands for democratization led the general EPRDF coalition to change leadership, and three years ago Abiy Ahmed, from the largest ethnic group, Oromo, was appointed the new prime minister. His sweeping reforms have marginalized the TPLF, which broke with the coalition and withdrew to Tigray where its power is complete.
“When Abiy signed his Nobel Prize-winning deal with Eritrea, there was more than just foreign policy motives. Peace gave him a reason to slowly demilitarize Tigray and TPLF.”
When Abiy signed his deal with Eritrea, an achievement that would earn him the Nobel Peace Prize, there were not just foreign policy motives. The peace gave him a reason to slowly demilitarize Tigray and the TPLF, which had emerged as a growing enemy. A bad relationship has worsened and reached its first peak in August, when Tigray held its regional elections while the rest of the country waited until next year, due to the covid crisis. Since then, the TPLF has not recognized the federal government in Addis Ababa.
The situation got worse last week when Abiy appointed a new brigadier general to lead the northern command, the branch of the army in Tigray. He was forced to return to the Mekelle airport, which basically meant that Abiy lost control of this part of the army.
Abiy claims that the army base in Mekelle was attacked in the early hours of Wednesday morning. This attack is his “casus belli”, a cause under international law to go to war, and now he has sent troops north to take control of Tigray.
On paper, the TPLF is a much weaker party than the Addis Ababa regime. And Eritrea is now on the same side as Abiy. Therefore, Tigray is, in principle, surrounded by enemies and lacks transportation channels if a full-scale war breaks out. But the TPLF is an experienced and heavily equipped war machine that has historically proven that it does not yield to the greatest of enemies. A war can be long and brutal.
Read more: Witness: At least 50 killed in attack on civilians in Ethiopia
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