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On March 11 of this year, the World Health Organization, WHO, came out and called the corona outbreak a pandemic, after the number of infections outside of China increased dramatically in a short time.
According to former Swedish state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke, who is now an adviser to the WHO, the organization defines a pandemic as a “global spread of a new disease.”
– There is no really good definition, but a pandemic is a contagious disease that spreads to at least two continents, he tells DN.
Something that complicates the matter is that the WHO statutes say nothing about the severity of a disease to be called a pandemic. That’s not in line with the perception many people have of the concept, he says.
– When you hear the word pandemic, you think it is something really dangerous, but a common cold can be a pandemic.
To further complicate matters, there is also nothing in the WHO statutes that says the organization, under certain circumstances, should label a disease a pandemic. Instead, they use the term “public health emergency of international concern” to declare an international threat to human health, the most serious warning the WHO can issue.
In cases where WHO declares An international threat means that the organization assesses that there is a risk of international spread of an infectious or other dangerous substance, and that coordinated action is needed. The statement means that the WHO can issue temporary recommendations that automatically expire after three months, but can be extended, the Swedish Public Health Agency writes on its website.
It is the WHO Director General who decides whether an event should be declared an international threat and when it should be declared closed. To help you, it has a committee of experts, charged with providing advice and suggestions on temporary recommendations. Members are elected from a group of experts, which includes representatives appointed by the Member States.
Johan Giesecke is the Vice Chair of the WHO Expert Group, advising the Director-General on the pandemic.
Photo: Ali Lorestani / TT
Johan Giesecke, who is vice president of the group of experts “The Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Risks”, is therefore one of those who in the future can advise the Director General of WHO – currently Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus – in the decision to cancel it. . international emergency.
The question is when can it become relevant.
– It takes a long time, I think years. I can’t say how many, but it doesn’t make sense to count in months. If I have to guess, the spread would at least have to be away from every continent except one, he says.
Giesecke has phone meetings with the group every Tuesday, but the end of the pandemic has not yet come.
– No, we are only at the beginning of the pandemic. It has not been discussed at all.
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the Swedish Public Health Agency believes that the question is not when the pandemic has ended, but when the WHO assesses that the international emergency has ended.
– It is not about x number of cases, but they make a global assessment, he says.
Tegnell believes it is impossible to know when it may become relevant, but a year from now at the earliest. He believes that the number of new cases must first be adequately reduced and the pressure on medical care around the world relieved.
– Definitely not this year. If next year is a quiet summer and you go into fall with no major breakouts, then maybe WHO feels so confident that they can put this aside.
Read more:
Three epidemiologists: this is how the pandemic ends
Danish Researcher: Sweden’s Pandemic May Be Over
