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Anders Tegnell leaves the scene of a low spread of covid-19 in society.
At the same time, he dismisses criticism that he downplayed the risks of a second wave.
– I can’t understand it, he says.
The spread of the infection in society is increasing and state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell now speaks of a second wave. The development goes against what the Public Health Agency declared in its last report to the government on September 1. “The most likely development in the spread of covid-19 in Sweden over the next year is a relatively low overall spread combined with local outbreaks.”
– No, it has not been that development, not in Sweden or anywhere else, says Anders Tegnell.
How could you make that mistake in judgment?
– Assessing how this disease develops is very difficult. We have always said that we produce scenarios. It’s not like weather forecasts where you have a hundred years of data that you can collect and refer to. Here you look at the outside world, you see how it unfolds there and somehow you assume that it will continue in the same way.
Photo: LOTTE FERNVALL
Anders Tegnell.
No division in society
Aftonbladet interviews the state epidemiologist on Skype Wednesday morning. Almost ten months have passed since the infection reached Sweden. Tegnell has received harsh criticism. But he does not believe there is a division in society over Swedish strategy, or a polarized debate.
– We have no division in Swedish society. There is an incredibly high level of trust in authority, the political level, and medical care.
Don’t you think the strategy debate is sometimes quite heated?
– It is a debate in the media, not a debate in society. It is not at all like in the United States, where this has been politically twisted, for example, which is a position to wear a mouth guard. Nor do we have strong protest movements against the authorities that we have in Germany and France. A large part of the population agrees that we take care of this in the best possible way.
It will always have the potential for breakouts.
Sweden has signed four agreements on vaccines. Swedish coordinator Richard Bergström hopes that all priority groups can get vaccinated this spring if all goes according to plan. Even if this becomes a reality, audiences will not be able to return to a normal life this summer, Tegnell says.
– Somehow we have to live with this disease. If we get a good vaccine, we can live in some way, but we do not know how many we can vaccinate or how often to vaccinate. There are many ambiguities.
Photo: Magnus Hjalmarson Neideman / SvD / TT
Message at the Hornstull bus stop.
A Harvard study predicts covid-19 outbreaks by 2025. How do you rate it?
– It depends on how much vaccination coverage we get, how good the vaccines will be, and how long the immunity lasts. This is a disease prone to flare-ups. I believe that this disease will always have the potential to create outbreaks in environments where a lot of people gather.
Once we have recovered, how will we deal with virus outbreaks in the future?
– When you look at the historical experience, unfortunately it is the case that we will not be much better next time. This can be seen in the Asian and Hong Kong flu. It is very difficult to predict what the big problems will be. We have a tendency to prepare for what has already happened. But usually the same thing doesn’t happen again.
It should be easier to keep your distance
Tegnell believes that we must incorporate into our social thinking that similar pandemics may occur in the future. So, for example, we cannot have a health care that does not work if the deliveries of materials take 24 hours.
– We must also take care of the elderly who can think about medical risks with things like this. You must have trained personnel who have the opportunity to work safely. We must have a school that can handle a situation like this, so that students have a good education. We must build a society where it is a little easier to keep our distance, where we can get to work without having to be crowded on public transport. There is a lot we can do.
Photo: Johan Nilsson / TT
Thanks for keeping your distance, firm.
I don’t understand the criticism
He is criticized for minimizing the risks of the infection spreading again. How do you see that criticism?
– I can not understand it. In other countries, it has been said that this is something that we will completely get rid of. We have been clear that this is a disease that will persist for a long time.
Are you also in crisis for having made incorrect assessments of important events during the spread of the infection?
– We always did risk assessments based on scenarios that were in place at that time. That he then comes back in the rearview mirror and says “so you thought that, look how it turned out three months later” is not a relevant argument when it comes to risk at the time. That is completely wrong.
According to an article by Svenska dagbladet, a rift has emerged between the government and the Public Health Agency. Stefan Löfven seems to have lost confidence in you, do you share that description?
– Not at all. It is not in me that he trusts, but in authority, and that trust remains completely intact. It is mostly my boss Johan Carlson who has the dialogue and there are no signs of such a thing. The fact that we no longer send formal requests to the government is due to the fact that we have such a good dialogue that we no longer need to spend time on it.
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