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Earlier this summer, Justice and Migration Minister Morgan Johansson (S) was clear in his message: The 26 proposals of the Committee on Migration Policy would be submitted for consultation. Something else was not relevant, according to the prime minister.
But the Green Party protested and demanded that only the proposals that the two parties can agree on be forwarded.
And now Morgan Johansson has obviously changed. When the committee’s final report was released today, its message was that the government is now starting discussions on what proposals the government should follow.
Lost the first round
The only reasonable interpretation of Morgan Johansson’s reversal is that he and the Social Democrats lost the first round of negotiations with the Green Party and that it is precisely the Green Party that won this first round.
Submitting research proposals for consultation is one way to provide authorities, courts, and organizations with opportunities to provide opinions on bills. Only proposals that are submitted can be included at a later stage in the bill that the government will put on the Riksdag table.
Today’s Morgan Johansson statement also means that, in principle, there is total uncertainty about future immigration policy. Today no one can answer which of all the committee’s proposals will be implemented.
Of course, there is a majority in the Riksdag for the 26 proposals the investigation has submitted. But the Green Party is only behind three of them. The main problem for the Social Democrats is therefore not the opposition in the Riksdag or other parliamentary parties, but above all the other ruling party.
Burning in the knots
The Social Democrats and the Green Party basically disagree deeply about asylum policy. While the Social Democrats want a more restrictive immigration policy, the Green Party fights for a more generous one.
The issue also has a great political explosiveness. The Green Party has already threatened to split the government on the issue, and as a decision approaches, new negotiations will begin between the two ruling parties.
And it burns in the knots. Research proposals must be submitted shortly so the government can present a full bill early next year. Thereafter, the Riksdag will take a stand and a new law will take effect during the summer. If this does not happen, the old and more generous immigration law that was applied until 2015 will take effect again. The Social Democrats don’t want that.
Government crisis risk
Therefore, it is a very difficult issue for the government. Today’s message from Morgan Johansson should be reasonably interpreted to mean that he now wants to agree with the Green Party and then hope that he can muster a majority in the Riksdag.
The question, however, is to what extent the Social Democrats are willing to compromise. On the one hand, there is the risk of a government crisis if the Social Democrats and the Green Party do not agree. On the other hand, the Social Democrats risk further voter losses in the event of a far-reaching compromise on refugee policy with the Green Party. Furthermore, it would pave the way for refugee policy to become a key issue in the upcoming election campaign, something that is not likely to benefit the Social Democrats either.
