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The epicenter of tension in Belarus is the Independence Square in Minsk. On Sunday, the presence of masked police officers was massive behind the riot fence. New arrests were made in front of cameras and mobile phones, and people were taken away on buses. By afternoon, at least 125 protesters had been arrested, Reuters reported.
But that did not stop thousands of Belarusians from gathering again in the streets under red and white flags demanding the departure of Alexander Lukashenko.
– We are united and will never accept him as our president, said the Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya from her exile in Lithuania to the SVT Agenda and thus gave voice to the peaceful confrontation with the regime.
There are still no signs that Alexander Lukashenko agrees with the negotiations. He has rejected the talks as long as the protests continue and is trying to strengthen his position and weaken the resistance movement by all means at his disposal.
The longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk that the security forces will resort to widespread new violence to restore calm and the old order of Lukashenko’s 26 years in power. No protester is safe, nor are people in the wrong place. It is obvious that arbitrary arrests are taking place. At the same time, testimonies from victims of serious abuse are becoming increasingly common in a tough tactic that could not be practiced without Lukashenko’s good memory.
To increase pressure on opposition figures, critics of the regime are called on for deterrence. Other measures include greater control of journalistic information through censorship and propaganda in state media and the expulsion of foreign journalists. At least 17 foreign journalists have been deprived of their accreditations and have been asked to leave the country. They work for western media such as the BBC, AP, AFP, Reuters and Deutsche Welle.
Alexander Lukashenko has also mobilized his army against what he says are attack plans by the NATO defense alliance in neighboring Poland and Lithuania. This has been denied and he sees it as a desperate way to shift his focus to an external threat. He also accuses Western countries of inciting unrest in the country to achieve regime change.
The EU disapproves of the results of the August 9 elections and demands a new fair and transparent election and the release of political prisoners. EU foreign ministers agree to impose specific sanctions on those responsible for the elections and violence. But it is not clear how many and who will be affected, nor when it will happen. From the Baltic point of view, it is criticized for being insufficient and too late.
However, the situation in Belarus is delicate, especially since Russia is in the background. Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Moscow in the coming weeks to strengthen bilateral ties and expand cooperation. It was decided in a phone call on Sunday where the Russian also congratulated Lukashenko on his 66th birthday.
Putin has confirmed that he is ready to come to the rescue of the country if necessary. It is a message for the West, but also for Lukashenko: that it must regain control of a strategically and economically important sphere of interest for Russia if it is to maintain its relative independence.
For the EU, a Russian military intervention in Belarus would be a nightmare. Amid the devastating crown pandemic, an acute threat of war in the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece over borders and natural resources and with Putin’s main domestic political critic Alexei Navanyj in a coma in Berlin would provoke another international crisis likely to have immediate consequences for security in Europe, especially in and around the Baltic Sea. The Swedish army increased preparation and sent reinforcements after three Russian landing craft passed east of Gotland.
It shows the nervous and uncertain development in Belarus and throughout the region three weeks after the massive popular protests broke out and continue.
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