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Statistics Sweden’s party sympathy poll shows that the moderates, the center party and the left party have been the winners in public opinion for the past six months. By contrast, the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats have lost the most.
The decline of the Social Democrats since May is remarkable at first glance. But much of the public support at the time was related to the first phase of the crown crisis when both the political system and the voters approached state leadership. Since then, the castle’s peace has been broken and criticism has grown against the government’s handling of the pandemic.
However, the Social Democrats continue to have clearly greater public support than when the pandemic began and today’s opinion figures are also above the result of the 2018 elections, so it is not possible to speak of a crisis for the party.
Risk of internal party revolt
For liberals, however, the situation is getting darker at night. Measure after measure, the party appears to be firmly entrenched under the parliamentary barrier. Today’s Statistics Sweden poll is no exception. With an unclear stance on the governance issue, the party fails to make itself relevant to voters and cooperation with Social Democrats turns voters away, especially moderates.
Party leader Nyamko Sabuni is living more and more dangerously and risks an internal party revolt if she cannot change course quickly. However, the situation is complicated. Strong internal critics are demanding that the party abandon the January collaboration to bring back fled voters, but it is far from obvious that a majority in the Liberals would support such a decision.
Nyamko Sabuni has promised information before the next elections, but the question is how long he dares to wait. In the end, she herself runs the risk of being dismissed.
The Green Party lives dangerously
The Green Party is another party in crisis, although the party’s situation is somewhat better than that of the Liberals. However, just beyond the parliamentary barrier, the Green Party lives dangerously and a new spokesperson will face difficult trials. It is mostly about party profiling before the next elections, including balancing climate policy and migration policy.
The moderates are responsible for the largest increase in the Statistics Sweden survey. There are probably several explanations behind this. The party has managed to emerge as a credible opposition party during the crown crisis, while the most important profile issue of the moderates, law and order, remains important to voters.
The rise of the Left Party may in all likelihood be linked to the party’s angry criticism of the parties’ January plans to change labor laws. Christian Democrats have seen themselves less and less in the political debate, while media attention has focused on various aspects of the private life of party leader Ebba Busch. Obviously, it has not benefited the Christian Democrats, who are backing down significantly.
No government majority
Still, today’s Statistics Sweden poll means that the parliamentary situation remains difficult. If today’s poll were the result of an election, none of the current government alternatives would win a majority. A conservative bloc with M, KD and SD would certainly be the largest, but it would not have its own majority. And without the liberals in the Riksdag, S, MP and C would be forced to cooperate with the Left Party in order to govern.
Thus, the next elections can put the parties and the political system to new tests.
