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It has become a recurring theme. The finance minister calls a press conference, takes a look at his previous picture of the budget situation and presents a new one, with tens of billions more in spending for the year.
The message for the day is that the crown crisis is estimated to cost a staggering $ 240 billion for the state in 2020. And much indicates that this forecast won’t last long, either.
The great cuckoo king, or the wild horse, or whatever you want to call it, in the budget is support for companies that allow short-term permits. In March, it was estimated to cost a few billion. A couple of weeks later, when the crown crisis took off, the forecast was 20 billion. And according to today’s message, the bill will go to $ 95 billion.
Total wrong judgment
Meanwhile, the government has increased the state’s level of compensation per employee, but most of it is because the finance minister made a total mistake of how many employees would need the support. 120,000 was the first commandment. Now the government forecast is 550,000 employees on average during the year. A total of 1.3 million people will receive part of the layoff support during any period during the year.
And it takes a lot for that forecast to come true. The Growth Agency has already supported 420,000 employees. Applications for many more are waiting to be processed.
When the government evaluates the overall economy for the year, it still believes the crown situation will calm down in the fall. Without being in any way an expert on something I should be an expert at commenting on medical wonders, I still dare say that it could take such a thing for that prognosis to be successful.
The worst scenarios can also hit
The fact that the economy is gaining momentum in the fall, in Sweden and in Sweden’s top countries for the manufacturing industry, should require a global warning sign for the crown as the summer holidays are drawing to a close. If, instead, it becomes a second and third wave of the virus when countries are opened, and it must be handled by political and economic rulers, and by individuals, then the crisis could enter next year in its current form.
In that case, different weather scenarios can hit just as easily. As the government’s new worst forecast for short-term employment. It reads 800,000 short-term permits on average during the year, at a cost of SEK 138 billion, or SEK 40 billion in addition to today’s forecast.
“Right now” is great to lend to all of this, but as it seems now, low government debt can nevertheless approach levels that at least the EU considered reasonable maximum limits when formulating criteria for the EU, cooperation, which is 60 percent of GDP. And then it may be time to prioritize the priorities for the finance minister, rather than expose them.
