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More and more voters are voting for a party that is not the one they like the most. In the 2014 and 2018 parliamentary elections, about one in fifth voter voted tactically, according to election researcher Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.
Without these voters, Christian Democrats would have received only 3.2 percent and left the Riksdag after the 2018 elections. Every third vote for the Green Party was a vote of support in the same election and every fifth for the Liberals. .
Supporting votes are often well-informed, and many are staunch supporters of another party. They make their choice after studying opinion polls and party decisions on the issue of government.
The reason may be to strengthen their alternative government by raising a coalition party above the parliamentary barrier, as happened recently with the Christian Democrats and the Green Party.
This growing voting tactic affects party actions. This also applies to liberals, when it comes to getting out of their untenable situation. The party decided to release Stefan Löfven (S) as Prime Minister in 2019 because a clear majority did not want to risk giving influence to the Swedish Democrats.
Read more: Now the great battle of Sabuni is decided
After this, the Liberals elected a party leader. that he would rather see Ulf Kristersson (M) as prime minister, also at the price of cooperation with the Swedish democrats.
Now is the day for liberals to choose the path. A narrow majority on the party’s board, led by party leader Nyamko Sabuni, proposes that the party work for a bourgeois government in 2022, depending on the SD if necessary. On Sunday, the 91 representatives of the party council will vote on the matter.
The Liberals’ proposal, to leave the January collaboration and work for a Kristersson government, was formulated with the help of internal opinion polls. They show that the party has the best chance of getting support votes in the next election as part of Kristersson’s team. More than one in three moderates can imagine voting for L and just over a quarter of all Christian Democratic voters, according to the poll.
If the Liberals, on the other hand, supported a new Löfven government or did not appoint a prime minister, the chances of supporting the votes are much smaller.
However, liberals have not investigated how many L voters would switch to another party because of the new line.
There are great risks with the incline. against tactical voters. If public opinion, or the message on the issue from government, changes, tactical voices can be as firm to lean on as a shower curtain.
If it seems that the moderates and the Christian Democrats in just over a year will get a clear majority of their own along with the Swedish Democrats, they don’t need the liberals.
If KD continues his journey in measurements, he may also need help. Ebba Busch’s party has long stood behind an M-led government and it is probably easier for liberals to get moderate tactical votes.
Moderate voters may even view liberals as unreliable. If Nyamko Sabuni wins the vote in the party council with a very small majority, there is a possibility that the messages will change again.
If Swedish moderates and Democrats seek to be equal in the elections, it may be important for M supporters who have considered tactical voting to lift their own party, so that it becomes the obvious choice for prime minister.
There are many about. The message of the liberals on the question of the government must be perceived as clear, so that the voters further to the right want to cast their vote there. But so far they are quite vague.
Sweden Democrats Jimmie Åkesson He has also rejected the model outlined by Nyamko Sabuni. He says his party is not in the least interested in such cooperation and instead offers liberals to become a wheel of support for a stable Conservative government.
Therefore, the moderates and the Christian Democrats may be forced to choose between the Swedish Democrats and the Liberals. It is very possible that that election ends with the advantage of Åkesson. Because although the Liberals are an old ally, it is a much smaller party than the SD and, ultimately, it is a parliamentary seat.
Voters who are convinced of the party’s ideology and politics are more assertive than tactical voters. But so far, the infighting of the liberals has completely overshadowed their policies.
If Nyamko Sabuni’s party continues to exist well below the four percent barrier even after Sunday’s road election, the tactical votes that would have been his salvation could be his death. If Liberals can’t seem to get past the block, voters may prefer to vote for a safer alternative. It is also part of being a tactical voter.
