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When polling station forecasts are supplemented by the first votes counted, Netanyahu’s Likud party wins 31 of 120 Knesset seats, and his right-wing religious bloc ends up with 53 or 54 seats. Together with Naftali Bennett’s right-wing Yamina party, which won 7 seats and is expected to join Netanyahu, the prime minister appears poised to form a 61-seat coalition over the next four years.
The key to the probable The victory is the Islamist Ra’am party, which in the preliminary elections predicted 5 seats. But the record low turnout in Arab societies hit the party hard, which does not appear to be able to break the 3.25 percent barrier. If Ra’am ends up outside the Knesset, the opposition’s hopes of removing Netanyahu after his twelve years in power are shattered.
The second largest party will be the liberal Yesh Atid, led by former journalist Yair Lapid, who will win 17 or 18 seats. With the exception of Ra’am, all parties in the danger zone managed to cross the barrier: the Labor Party with 7 seats, the radical left Meretz with 6, Deputy Prime Minister Benny Gantz Blåvitt with 7 seats and the right. Extremist “religious Zionism” with 7 seats. The Russian immigrant party, the ultra-nationalist but hostile to Netanyahu, “Israel our home”, seems set to lose 1 of its 7 seats in the last election, while the joint list of Arab parties plummeted from 15 to 7 or 8 seats.
The big losers of the elections in terms of mandate, Netanyahu became both right-wing rivals, Naftali Bennett’s Yamina and Gideon Saar’s “The New Hope.” For two months, each of these parties had between 15 and 20 seats at the polls, but during the improvement in health in recent weeks and the opening of the economy, both lost their best interest in Netanyahu and fell to 7 and 6. seats. respectively. For Bennett, this is not a disaster, as his party will be the leader and may demand a high price for its participation. Saar has vowed never to form a coalition with Netanyahu.
The margin between the two fields, “only Netanyahu field” and “never Netanyahu field” is fine. Nothing is certain about the formation of the government until the final count, which includes the votes of soldiers, diplomats, corona isolates and detainees, is completed on Friday.
Before Netanyahu can present a viable coalition remains a laborious cow trade with various nationalist politicians, several of whom deeply distrust him. The most delicate will be the negotiations with “religious Zionism”, a common list for several different extremist parties, one of which has its roots in the banned racist party Kach. Netanyahu will hardly be able to avoid giving a ministerial portfolio to Itamar Ben-Gvir, a former Kach member and defender of the Hebron massacre of 29 Muslims in 1994.
Another stumbling block will be the post of Justice Minister, which the right-wing Yamina party will demand on behalf of Ayelet Shaked. During his years in office, he re-equipped the Supreme Court, local courts, and the prosecutor’s office, and during the campaign he promised to complete the task by appointing three new nationalist-minded HD judges.
However, Netanyahu has made it clear that his Likud will never let go of the Ministry of Justice, which will be at the center of future developments. Very soon, the corruption trial against Netanyahu will resume in the Jerusalem District Court, where three of his closest associates will testify against him. If Netanyahu is to have time to carry out his plans to torpedo the trial or postpone it indefinitely, he must ensure that he quickly recovers a coalition. This will make you even more inclined to give in to the obscene demands of the various small parties that you need on your side to be able to legislate smoothly.
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Four elections in two years, but the chaos in Israel risks continuing
