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Estonian experts and several Swedish investigative journalists claim that the new hole probably arose when Estonia hit the seabed.
But the bottom where Estonia is located consists of 5 to 30 meters of soft clay, according to documents requested by the Swedish Accident Investigation Board.
– It seems unlikely that it would have caused the hole, says Martin Schreuder of Chalmers University of Technology.
Ten journalists told DN Debatt that the simplest explanation for the newly discovered holes in Estonia is that the ship landed on rocks or other irregularities when it hit the seabed.
Estonian experts have previously presented similar explanations. Experts say that the bottom appears to be made of solid, hard rock. They concluded after seeing the raw material of the new Estonian documentary but emphasize that they did not make an exhaustive analysis.
Photo: NEWS AGENCY DPLAY / TT / TT
Part of 1996 report
Aftonbladet has also participated in the raw material of the documentary. In the movies, they look like rock formations around the ship. But shipwreck expert Linus Andersson, who was present when the documentary was filmed, is convinced that it is actually clay from the Baltic Sea.
The Accident Investigation Board analyzes the report
The Swedish Accident Investigation Board has received material to support this view. A 1996 report states that the bottom where Estonia is located is made of soft clay, between 5 and 30 meters thick. The clay is thickest on the south side where the ship is located and thinnest in the north.
According to the report, there is a harder moraine under the clay. About 100 meters from the north side of the ship there is a harder bedrock under the mud.
The report was prepared by Delft Geotechics and commissioned by the Swedish Maritime Administration. Review the findings of various in-depth surveys conducted during the years 1994-1996. The investigations include a large number of drilling in the area, as well as other analyzes.
The purpose of the report was to investigate which material would be best suited to cover Estonia. The report does not address whether bottom conditions could have caused damage to the hull, as the issue was not discussed at the time.
Analyze the report
Martin Schreuder, a senior professor at Chalmers University and an expert on ship stability, has previously said that the hole may have occurred when the ship bottomed out.
Is it reasonable if the bottom consists of 5 to 30 meters of soft clay with a bed of hard rock underneath?
– No, you feel a layer of clay so thick that it seems unlikely. It takes something harder than clay for such a hole to occur, he says.
Linus Andersson has examined several other remains near where Estonia is located. Even there, the bottom is made of clay, he says.
– My opinion is that there is no rock formation or rock where Estonia is located, except those rocks that were later thrown onto the deck. People have seen a couple of clips from the movie, watched it too fast and drawn conclusions from it, he says.
Share materials with Estonia
The Norwegian Accident Investigation Board confirms that the authority ordered and is now investigating the report.
Do you think the unknown hole in the hull could have occurred when the ship hit the bottom, even though the bottom is made up of such a thick layer of clay?
– Work on the preliminary assessment is ongoing and it is too early to comment on the causes of the holes, says Jonas Bäckstrand, head of Estonian investigation at the Swedish Accident Investigation Board.
The report’s conclusion goes against what Estonian experts claim, that the bottom appears to be hard stone. Will you communicate the findings of this report to Estonia?
– The three investigating authorities share all relevant material with each other and for open and constructive discussions on all issues related to ongoing work.
The journalists and the director respond
Aftonbladet has contacted four of the journalists who signed the debate article on DN. Bo-Göran Bodin and Axel Gordh Humlesjö say they base their opinion mainly on the Estonian experts’ statement and the footage from the documentary. Dan Josefsson says that he bases the assumption on the principle of simplicity, also called Ockham’s razor. Janne Josefsson says that she signed the text because she shares the general criticism of the documentary that is highlighted in the discussion article.
Estonian documentary director Henrik Evertsson writes in a text message that he thinks the report is robust.
In our series of programs, we put forward, among other things, the hypothesis that the damage may have occurred when M / S Estonia meets the seabed. In the same sequence, we also highlight this report, its documentation and conclusions. Our attitude has always been that the expert authorities must find out how the damage occurred. “
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