The cut of green electricity puts all the forecasts on its head

For Andreas Wickman in Burgsvik, Gotland’s wind energy story began 40 years ago.

– I had to borrow a small wind turbine, made by Tudor in Sundbyberg, which was enough for a couple, three bulbs, he tells DN.

It was the end of the 1970s and wind energy pioneer Andreas Wickman’s own need – Gotlandsgården where he moved had never been connected to the power grid – coincided with a major development. The oil crisis had sparked interest in alternative energy technology.

Measurements showed that Näsudden in southern Gotland was perfect for wind power. The island was the first to catch the wind both on land and at sea. Local communities and businesses moved on.

Today, the island is half self-sufficient in electricity.

At the same time, Gotland faces new dilemmas. The network is not enough.

– Lately we have had a lot of interruptions, says Andreas Wickman.

Cement in Slite is one of the large employers and, after SSAB in Luleå, the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the country. Here, production will be restructured.

– It is very important for the cement industry to find a way forward to capture carbon dioxide. Our ambition is to have a large-scale capture facility on Gotland by 2030, says Karin Comstedt Webb, Nordic sustainability manager for the Heidelberg group, owner of Cementa.

The problem is that such a plant, where the carbon dioxide will be separated from the combustion gases, compressed and then shipped to Norway by ship, will require large amounts of electricity.

– Today we have a power of 45 megawatts, and it will increase to 200. But the total installed power in Gotland is only 180 megawatts today, says Karin Comstedt Webb.

The Gotland equation it is pointed. The shortcomings, bottlenecks and opportunities are particularly notable.

– Wind and sun are what we can mainly produce on a large scale here. There are designated areas that can provide more than three terawatt hours per year, says Andreas Wickman.

The three terawatt hours it would be more than enough for the needs of the island. But the industry needs a stability that local wind energy cannot guarantee.

And then we have the issue of cables. Two high-voltage direct current cables located at the bottom of the Baltic Sea limit both the import and, when the wind conditions are good, the export of electricity to the mainland. There will be stops in both directions, explains Andreas Wickman. Wind energy does not go out and the industry does not go in enough.

A decision on a third connection from Svenska kraftnät is expected shortly.

– We need to make investments in our business. But also reinforcements must be made in the local network and transmission cables to the mainland must be installed. If any of these parts fail, then the transformation of the cement industry will be difficult to complete, says Karin Comstedt Webb.

The challenges on the island it is at the same time a reflection of the question facing all of Sweden: if Sweden is going to be climate neutral by 2045, is the electricity enough for everything that is going to change?

The Energiföretagen industry association report “Roadmap for fossil-free competition” contains a forecast of electricity demand in Sweden up to the year 2050. It means an increase to 190 terawatt hours, compared to around 140 for the year in which the forecast was made – 2018.

– It would have looked completely different if we had done it today. At that time, the automotive industry did not believe in electric trucks, so there was no new LKAB project requiring 55 terawatt hours, nor plans for up to 30 terawatt hours in, among other things, the chemical industry in western Sweden .

Here’s what Per Holm, climate manager at Energiföretagen, which brings together electricity producers and network owners, says:

– There will really be man guesses here, but it can be around another up to 100 terawatt hours. While it must be remembered that this is based on plans by different actors, we do not know what it will really be like.

Will its members make it?

– It is not just production that will work, we must have a more robust electrical grid, it is probably a bigger problem. Wind power will increase even more. But if we’re going to produce that much electricity, extending the life of nuclear power is probably an important piece of the puzzle. It also works when the wind dies down, says Per Holm.

Energy companies want a better electricity market and better regulation of the electricity grid, so that industry players dare to make investments “lasting between 30 and 50 years.” It is also noted that a fossil-free Sweden presupposes that “demand follows”:

– Our industry is globally exposed to competition, if you want to dare to invest, you have to believe that customers want their products. If the world buys fossil-free steel from SSAB, we are home; otherwise, production ends up in countries where it doesn’t pay for its emissions, says Per Holm.

Most central actor in the Swedish transition is the Swedish Energy Agency, among other things through research on renewable energy sources and smart grids and support for new energy efficient technologies. The Managing Director is Robert Andrén:

– A lot is happening at the moment, so the forecast becomes more difficult. At the same time, the debate is sometimes noisy, there is talk that there will be a serious shortage of electricity and they signal others to fix the situation. Instead, we should hook our arms at all levels of society to come up with what we should use electricity for.

What do you mean?

– Among other things, we must agree on how we can modernize electricity grids and discuss whether and how to subsidize certain types of energy. But it is also about having electricity prices that give a thoughtful behavior; this is not the case today.

Will green electricity be enough?

– I think so. The important thing that is happening is the increase in wind power, but we also know that for the next few decades we will have so-called plannable electricity from hydroelectric and nuclear power. Then we can change in a controlled way, and then we will also find new solutions.

In 2019, Sweden’s electricity production and exports reached a record high. At the same time, Robert Andrén points out that climate change is also about rationalizing:

– We are seeing more and more technical solutions in which energy is used more intelligently. And indeed in Sweden we have reduced our electricity use for the last two years, even in industry.

Per Holm of energy companies points out that it should be easier to plan and implement new electrical projects:

– We want faster permits for wind power, where there is sometimes a lot of local resistance, he says.

Andreas Wickman of Gotland does not acknowledge that conflict:

– Here, Gotland companies own shares in wind power. It can make a radical difference. Gotlanders do not feel pressured by outside developers, they have benefited financially from the investments.

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