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52 dead one day in early December.
The figure comes from planning data from government offices for the fall and is an estimate of how many people could die each day if Sweden were hit by a second wave. The report was prepared by officials from government offices in September, led by crisis coordinator Elisabeth Backteman, to deal with the pandemic.
The data describe the consequences that two or three different infection spread scenarios (flattening, a second wave, or a cluster infection) could have for society.
When the document was written In the fall, officials estimated that certain restrictions should be maintained throughout the year for the spread of the infection to continue to stabilize after the summer. “This applies mostly to risk groups and to a large extent to the greater part of the population,” he says.
However, the government decided to lift the national ban on visiting the country’s nursing homes on October 1, and a few weeks later, on October 22, the government decided to ease public restrictions. At the same time, the Swedish Public Health Agency removed special restrictions for people over 70 years of age.
The Minister of Social Affairs, Lena Hallengren (S), has declined a telephone interview and has chosen to answer DN’s questions in writing.
Why did the government decide to relax two different restrictions, the ban on visiting nursing homes as of October 1 and the public restriction on October 22?
“On October 1, the situation looked better, both because the spread of the infection had decreased and because the care of the elderly had had time to take action. Then there was no longer any reason to limit the opportunities for the elderly and family to visit in the same way. It should never be forgotten that these are far-reaching restrictions on the opportunities of older people to receive visits to their own homes. On November 21, the opportunity for the Swedish Public Health Agency to make a decision on bans on local visits came into force, ”he writes.
On October 22, the Swedish Public Health Agency also decided to ease restrictions for more than 70 years. So the government shared the authority’s assessment? And now?
“The meaning of the new advice from the Public Health Agency was that the same rules would apply to everyone. The previously valid advice had been important but at the same time placed great stress on many older people. It is well known that isolation and loneliness negatively affect physical and mental health. I think it is good that the authority adapts its advice and recommendations to development, writes Hallengren.
The Justice Ministry, which handles public restrictions, tells DN that the October decision to introduce public relief was made in dialogue with the Public Health Agency, but that the situation changed rapidly and that therefore the government lowered the cap on public gatherings and public events to a maximum of eight people effective Nov. 24.
The crisis coordinator of the Government Offices, Elisabeth Backteman, has previously emphasized that the various scenarios of the Government Offices should not be interpreted as a forecast of what it will be like, but as part of crisis management to plan for the worst.
How many really died with covid-19 in early December it is too early to say as the numbers are lagging behind, but both the government and the Public Health Agency have confirmed that we are in a second wave. According to the authority, the latest weekly average of the number of deaths is 56 people per day, for the period 20-26 November, a figure that, according to the authority, has probably increased since then.
