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By mid-December, the trend would reverse and the curve would begin to flatten out again, the Public Health Agency thought.
But with the results in hand, it turns out to be a wrong forecast.
– The number of reported cases increased last week, so the peak was obviously not reached, says Sara Byfors of the Public Health Agency.
Sweden will peak in infection in December. Then it turns off. That’s how it sounded in late November when the Swedish Public Health Agency released its forecast for the second wave.
– It was a forecast that we made on November 26, which said that a week ago the largest number of new cases would have occurred. Now we’ve seen the number of reported cases increase last week, so the peak in the number of reported cases was obviously not reached, says Sara Byfors, unit manager for the Public Health Agency.
Photo: Janerik Henriksson / TT
Sara Byfors, Unit Manager for the Swedish Public Health Agency.
Instead, the peak of the second wave infection curve is expected to be reached in “a few weeks,” depending on how well the population follows the general recommendations.
It could be black friday
When the wrong forecast was predicted, the Black Friday sale, which drew several crowds, had not yet occurred. Could it have affected the output?
– All close contacts with other people run the risk of starting a new chain of infection and spreading the infection even more, so it is clear that it can affect, says Sara Byfors.
At the same time, it is difficult to attribute an increase in infection cases to special events.
– But there may have been new chains of infection there. It’s a shame, says Sara Byfors.
Photo: Private.
Low Black Friday.
Avoid the midday sales
At the same time, much of Sweden bears witness to crowds in shopping malls, Christmas markets and other public places where people do not keep their distance or follow other recommendations.
Does the Christmas rush and the upcoming midday sale mean we can expect a new spike of infection in January?
– It is our behavior that can affect it, says Sara Byfors.
– We really want to point out that even during weekends you limit the number of contacts and you don’t meet people you don’t usually know, he says.
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