[ad_1]
Published:
What is really needed to reduce the spread of infection in society?
According to Professor Matti Sällberg, at least 50 percent of the population needs to be vaccinated to obtain attenuation.
– But we do not know how long immunity remains after vaccination or infection. This affects everything, he tells Aftonbladet.
With several different corona vaccines on the way, many Swedes are currently considering whether or not they will be vaccinated.
According to Matti Sällberg, professor of biomedical analysis at Karolinska Institutet, about half of the population needs to be vaccinated to reduce the spread of infection:
– In the spring, we may have a spread of 20-40 percent in the population that has had the infection in combination with the 50 percent that were vaccinated, at least. Then we get to 60-80 percent and then I think we can see a decrease in infection.
Photo: CAROLINA BYRMO
Matti Sällberg, professor of biomedical analysis at Karolinska Institutet.
It does not mean that it ceases
When asked how he is consistent with the Public Health Agency’s forecast that the spread of the infection would culminate this week, he responded as follows:
– The fact that it ends does not mean that the spread of the infection ceases, it is expected that it will decrease with respect to current levels. Antibody tests in Stockholm indicate a possible prevalence of 20-40 percent this spring, which may mean that around 20 percent of Stockholmers had the infection.
– If you then vaccinate 50 percent of the population, you land at 60-80 percent. So yes, it is highly compatible, but we do not know how long immunity remains after vaccination or infection. This affects everything.
“It is not an unreasonable assumption”
What happens when half the population has been vaccinated? Have we then achieved herd immunity?
– Viruses become more difficult to spread. It is impossible to answer what percentage occurs. At least 50 percent is not an unreasonable assumption, but you may need 60 to 80 percent.
Photo: Frank Augstein / TT
Britain began vaccinating against covid-19 on Tuesday.
Is the infection eradicated in society when half the population has been vaccinated or is there still a risk that it will re-emerge?
– It is governed by how many are immune, that is, vaccinated and those who have had an infection, and how long immunity lasts after this. If immunity is short-lived, there is an even greater risk that it will flare up again.
So even if half the population gets vaccinated, can local outbreaks or a third wave continue?
– It is not impossible, but it will probably not be the same health burden as before.
Photo: Graeme Robertson / TT
The UK is the first country to vaccinate with the Pfizer and Biontech vaccine.
“Then the virus will continue to spread”
But if half the population does not want to be vaccinated, what happens then?
– So the virus will continue to spread until flock immunity is achieved and we will have to live with restrictions such as blocking, not traveling, etc.
The vaccine may not reach the general population until summer / fall. Therefore, is there a risk of a third wave already in spring?
– Of course, but hopefully it will have a lesser effect on risk groups and the elderly than the previous ones.
Published:
