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In one year, there has been a strong change of scenery in the fight to be the largest opposition party. Then Sweden’s Democrats had voter support as high as 25 percent, while moderates dropped about 16 percent, a level that forced former M leaders like Bo Lundgren and Anna Kinberg Batra to resign.
Ulf Kristersson, on the other hand, clung to the helm cult and now the M ship has a strong wind in the sails. A voter support of 23 percent means that the party is now again the largest opposition party with a 3 percentage point advantage over the Swedish Democrats.
Behind the rise it is diligent advocacy work on issues such as crime and immigration. The moderates have taken every opportunity to criticize the government’s policy in these areas and at the same time challenged the SD on who wants to take the most powerful measures.
This has benefited moderates, says Ipsos opinion analyst Nicklas Källebring, especially as the party has also provided clear information on the issue of government and its vision of SD.
– As the moderates have let the Swedish democrats into the warmth of the house, the discussion is no longer occupied by the relationship with them. Then it will be easier for the moderates to devise their policy in essence and challenge SD in these areas, says Nicklas Källebring.
The moderates have mainly recovered voters who for a time left the party. Liberals, Christian Democrats, and Swedish Democrats have also seen benefits to some extent compared to the 2018 elections.
DN / Ipsos measurement It began after it emerged that center-right party member Fredrick Federley had a close relationship with a person who has yet to serve his full sentence for serious sexual offenses against children. During the investigation, Federley announced that he would be leaving his seat in the European Parliament, like all other political assignments.
The center falls from 9 to 7 percent in the survey. Nicklas Källebring believes, however, that he is only partly related to Fredrick Federley.
– The normal thing when the parties are shaken by the scandals is that the voters who leave go to the category of insecure. That has not happened here. Most of the electorate has turned to the Social Democrats and the moderates. For that reason, the Federley story is probably not the main reason for the Center’s losses, he says.
The Social Democrats it fell into public opinion after peaking of more than 30 percent during the first corona wave this spring. The December survey confirms that the landslide has slowed down, something that has also been seen in other measurements. At 26 percent, the party still has the support of more people than before the outbreak of the pandemic.
Despite the fact that Swedish measures have failed to prevent a strong new wave of infection during the fall, voters’ ratings of the government remain stable. 34 percent believe they do a good job, according to the survey. The proportion who believe that development in Sweden is going in the wrong direction has also fallen somewhat, from 44 percent in October to 40 percent in December.
The deep crisis of the liberals persists. The December poll signifies a new lower historical list that is rounded to 3 percentage points.
Support from voters for the Left Party remains stable at 11 percent despite the party leader change. Jonas Sjöstedt resigned with very strong popularity figures, but his successor Nooshi Dadgostar still retains control of the voters.
The Green Party stands out for a small increase to 5 percent. Nicklas Källebring notes that the party has received attention both for the upcoming election of a new spokesperson and for further tours by unaccompanied immigrants from Afghanistan.
Christian Democrats receive their lowest estimate since November 2018, which rounds to 5 percent.
