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The WHO report runs until December 6 and shows how the number of deaths in Europe is decreasing, while the number of people infected with the virus remains high. Seen over a seven-day period, deaths from COVID-19 decreased by three percent in Europe, while the number of recently confirmed infections decreased by nine percent during the same period a week earlier.
However, there are indications that both the death toll and the number of infected are about to rise again when many countries reopen their communities within a few weeks.
In France, the number of deaths continues to hover around 500 per day, which it has done for over a month, in Italy the number of deaths has fluctuated between 500 and 900 since the beginning of November and in the United Kingdom the number has varied between 500 and 600 deaths during the same period.
But the trend differs quite a bit from country to country, states state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell:
– There are countries that have had a spectacular decrease, such as Belgium, the Netherlands and France, while others such as the Czech Republic have had a strong increase. If the dramatic decline is real or if there is an element of not testing as much as previously done, we don’t know. But it is clear that the decline has been quite dramatic, especially in Western Europe of late.
At the same time you note It is a sign that the death toll remains high in many parts of Europe.
● In Turkey, the death toll continues to rise to new record levels for each day seen during the past week with 217 new registrations on Wednesday.
● In Poland, there are indications that the death toll of around 600 per day appears to be decreasing.
● In Slovakia, which closes all schools on Wednesday for three weeks starting December 21, the number of infected people is increasing considerably, while the number of deaths is around 25 per day.
● In Hungary, the number of deaths in a few weeks has been around 150 and the curve has increased considerably since mid-October.
● In France, the authorities’ hopes of reducing the number of infections per day to less than 5,000 seem to be fading. That level is a condition for completing the various measures that have just been introduced up to and including December 15. Instead, an increase in the number was reported from 13,713 on Tuesday to 14,595 on Thursday. An increase even when compared to Wednesday a week ago.
So do the WHO figures showing that Europe is in decline despite the fact that we are now increasingly on the road to winter give any hope?
– Yes, I absolutely think you can say that. So you may wonder how sustainable it will be considering the season. Many countries have taken very energetic measures to reduce the numbers, parts of the companies have been closed, so it has been difficult in the countries where it has now become. The question is what happens when you reopen, says Anders Tegnell.
Anders Tegnell points out what what happened in several countries after the summer when communities reopened and warns that there is a risk that the infection will increase again.
– Even if the vaccine arrives at the beginning of the new year, it is doubtful that it will have time to vaccinate at such a rate that it can prevent a new wave. We had a new wave in the spring that then started again in the fall. We in Sweden got it relatively late in the fall after having done it for quite a long period. I was very hopeful that we could handle ourselves at a fairly low level during the winter, but it finally started in Sweden as well. Despite the fact that we were a few weeks behind the rest of Europe and our curve seems much flatter than many other countries in Europe.
Because the development of the infection in Europe is not homogeneous. It differs from country to country. Many countries saw an increase in September, which has now started to decline.
– Then we have countries like Denmark, which now seems to be increasing quite late and Norway, which now has quite high figures, not compared to Sweden, but at a fairly constant level over time. So there are countries that have a different development, says Anders Tegnell.
So what do you think about what will happen in Europe during the winter? Many close parts of their communities.
– I think it will be a harsh winter in Europe. There is probably a risk that it will start over after Christmas and New Years. I don’t think they can keep their communities closed for that long this time. You will probably have to reopen it to avoid many negative effects and then it can be difficult to contain the infection.
According to Tegnell, it will take three to four months, even with the most optimistic vaccine hopes, before the vaccine makes any difference.
In Germany, the number of deaths clearly increases during the period from early November to today, Wednesday, when 622 new deaths were recorded. The number of deaths has increased over a long period of time, while the number of new infections has been relatively stable since the beginning of October.
– We probably wouldn’t have thought it would be like this in Germany. They did very well in the spring, but they have spread a lot this fall and are also starting to have a growing death toll. And it shows how difficult it is to control this disease. There are no solutions you can trust in the long term. Many countries will continue to go through very difficult times with this disease, says Anders Tegnell.
Right now it’s north and South America most affected. According to WHO statistics, the number of deaths increased by 18 percent and the number of new infections by 12 percent during the week to and including December 6. North and South America account for about half of all new infections and deaths in the world. Here, it is mainly the United States and Brazil that are responsible for the increase.
On Tuesday, the United States reported a record number of deaths in the last 24 hours with 2,960 deaths and in the last week it has been close to 3,000 deaths per day on several occasions. This must be compared to the worst period before in April this year, when the death toll used to be between 2,500 and 2,600 per day.
Also the number of new confirmed Cases of infection are very large in the United States, with more than 215,000 new cases on Tuesday alone, and the United States now accounts for 68 percent of all new cases in North and South America, according to the WHO. On Wednesday, 36 states showed more cases of covid-19 than the previous week. Currently, only three states show a downward trend.
– I just had a meeting with American colleagues and there the situation is beginning to despair. They are really concerned because in many places they are beginning to approach full capacity in their medical care. It was probably thought that it would calm down, but now it is improving correctly, says Anders Tegnell.
But there are parts of the world where the infection does not increase. The Western Pacific region sees a decrease in the number of new cases, but a small increase in the number of deaths. Malaysia, for example, shows a 14 percent decrease in the number of cases, while China showed a 22 percent increase compared to the previous week, but then from very low levels. Southeast Asia is also experiencing a sharp decline in the number of new cases, but a small increase in the number of deaths.
– It is a mystery we must think about. How has Southeast Asia managed to do so well during this period? Although there are some countries whose statistics you can be a little suspicious, but look at Thailand, for example, which has done so well. Japan has also done relatively well, it has also been at a fairly high level when it comes to the spread of the infection, but despite that, the number has never disappeared. With fairly moderate means, Japan has managed to keep the infection under control, says Anders Tegnell.
Also the eastern Mediterranean region notes a decrease in the number of cases and a sharp decrease in the number of deaths. The WHO notes that the number of cases is increasing in Egypt, where the country’s authorities are now restricting the working hours of store employees and reducing the number of public employees who can be in the workplace.
Africa continues to do relatively well, but saw the number of cases increase by nine percent over the period. The death toll remains low in the rest of the world. Nigeria stands out with an increase in the number of cases by 46 percent during the week to and including December 6.
