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Professor and former state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke said in March that he thought the corona pandemic would be like a slightly tougher flu season, math professor Tom Britton said of a herd immunity for Stockholm in May.
– I thought it would spread more like a normal flu, more evenly. We now know that most of those infected are probably not so contagious and it is very difficult to make models for them. We have “super-spreaders” and people who don’t infect at all, says Giesecke at SVT’s Morgonstudion.
“He will fool us again”
One of the reasons it was difficult to say correctly about the spread of the infection is that human behavior has changed during the time the pandemic has been going on, Giesecke says.
– It is a virus that has deceived us many times and will deceive us again. It does not behave as we think. It has a cluster effect and plays a role in the spread of the infection, he says.
By developing several different scenarios for the spread of the infection, as the Public Health Agency did in August, he believes it is the right way to go. But to introduce more restrictions in the current situation, the former state epidemiologist believes that we have to wait and see.
– I think we have to wait and see what effect the restrictions we have now have. If you change that once a week, you don’t know what to do.
