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On November 18, 96 new deaths were reported among people infected with covid-19 in Sweden. State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell commented on the relatively high DN number. He noted that the deaths were spread over a long period of time.
– We do not have a dramatic increase, but it is an increase that we have seen since mid-October. So we had 4 to 5 deaths a day and now we are at about 20, he told DN.
He continued:
– It is not the case that we have suddenly gone from these 20 daily deaths that we had before to 40, 50. That is not the case at all.
But in the same way that the deaths reported on November 18 were spread over different dates until the end of October, the death toll for the period around November 18 has gradually been replenished until the beginning of December.
Increase four times greater than what Tegnell said
On the same day that DN interviewed Anders Tegnell, on November 18, 49 people with covid-19 died in Sweden. During the seven-day period of November 15-21, when November 18 is in between, 292 people died.
All according to the Public Health Agency’s own statistics on death rates by date, as seen on December 2. More deaths are likely to be reported.
292 deaths in seven days corresponds to an average of 41.7 deaths per day. Therefore, the figure is in the range of 40 to 50, where Anders Tegnell emphatically stated that the death toll no low.
Tegnell’s claim that Sweden had between four and five deaths a day in mid-October is also incorrect, according to the Public Health Agency’s own figures. During the seven-day period from October 13 to 19, 17 people died, corresponding to 2.4 deaths per day.
The two mistakes together mean that the death toll from mid-October to mid-November increased more than four times what Tegnell stated in the DN interview.
Tegnell’s fault in the dispute with the 22 investigators
That the death toll adjusts higher much later is nothing new in recent weeks.
This spring, April 14, Anders Tegnell took a hard line against the 22 critical researchers who in a DN debate article claimed that Sweden had higher death rates than Italy during the April 7-9 period, a total of 316 deaths.
Investigators made the mistake of drawing conclusions about how many people died on these dates based on how many deaths were reported, and the state epidemiologist was belligerent when Expressen interviewed him about the debate article on the same day.
“The numbers are totally wrong,” he said.
Tegnell referred to the Public Health Agency statistics on deaths by date of death, which then showed that a total of 185 people with Covid-19 had died between April 7 and 9.
Expressen then asked if the figures could be adjusted up.
– There will be no new cases, Anders Tegnell replied.
But the numbers adjusted, over and over again, eventually stabilizing at 285 cases, 100 more than Tegnell claimed and 31 less than the figure of 22 researchers.
Long delay even during the second wave
Even during the second fall wave, death rates have been adjusted upward for a long time afterward. That pattern was already clear when Tegnell spoke to DN.
Weekly reports from the Swedish Public Health Agency, released on Fridays, establish a preliminary number of deaths for the previous week. It is always clear that this figure can increase. The report for week 44 (October 25 to November 1) states the death toll 40. When Tegnell did the interview with DN, that figure had doubled.
In the weekly report for week 45 (Nov. 2-8), the death rate was set at 58. When Anders made his remarks, it had already risen to 141, an average of 20 deaths per day. The painting Anders Tegnell painted was like this that the curve of death had completely flattened.
As of November 18, 129 deaths had been reported for the immediately preceding calendar week: week 46. In other words, only twelve additional lagged deaths were required for the daily average for week 46 to exceed 20.
Such a small lag would have meant a sharp break in the trend compared to the large lag in the death toll in previous weeks.
The latest weekly reports that were available when Tegnell spoke on DN also gave further signs that the death toll was not about to stabilize. Here are some examples:
Week 43 (October 19-25)
Number of cases: 9,165
Proportion of positives: 5.6 percent
Nursing home cases: 128
Recently published in iva: 27
Week 44 (October 26-November 1)
Number of cases: 18,489
Proportion of positives: 9.7 percent
Nursing home cases: 255
Recently published in iva: 49
Week 45 (November 2-8)
Number of cases: 25,483
Proportion of positives: 10.9 percent
Nursing home cases: 398
Recently published in iva: 97
Questions to Tegnell
Expressen has unsuccessfully sought out Anders Tegnell for comment. The questions we had asked him are:
Why did you say that Sweden had 20 deaths a day and why did you specifically mention that Sweden “did not have between 40 and 50 deaths a day”?
On what did you base your statements?
When he was interviewed on DN, the death figures for the previous weeks during the second wave had doubled or more compared to the preliminary figures indicated in the weekly reports. Did you draw any conclusions from that?
The number of cases, the positive proportion, the number of new admissions to VAT and the number of cases in nursing homes increased dramatically during the weeks of late October and early November. Didn’t that influence your estimate of the death toll on November 18?
Just as the deaths reported on Nov. 18 were spread out over a couple of weeks in time, the death toll on Nov. 18 has rebounded in the two weeks that have passed since then. Was it unexpected?
You have been wrong before. On April 14, he claimed that 185 people died between April 7 and 9. He was assured that no new cases would be reported. An additional 100 cases were reported for those dates. Did you learn any lessons from that?
When you are wrong about the death toll, which can be easily controlled, do you think it can affect public confidence in your statements on issues that are more difficult to control, such as the effects of the Swedish krona strategy?
Death toll in Sweden during the second wave
Deceased with confirmed covid-19 reported until December 2 inclusive. The death toll will adjust upward, mainly in recent weeks.
Week 42 (October 12-18): 16
Week 43 (October 19-25): 43
Week 44 (October 26 – November 1): 82
Week 45 (November 2-8): 155
Week 46 (November 9-15): 230
Week 47 (November 16-22): 307
Week 48 (November 23-29): 219
Harsh words on Sweden’s crown strategy from 22 researchers at DN.
