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On Wednesday, Statistics Sweden’s large party sympathy poll shocked Nyamko Sabuni and her party. Liberals break a record. At 3.0 percent, the party gets the lowest figure since the polls began in the 1970s.
The previous opinion poll, which was conducted in May, was almost as bad for L. The party must soon reverse its bad trend if it is to be able to overcome the four percent barrier in the next election.
Therefore, today’s measurement may shoot low the crisis of the liberals, where an internal dispute has broken out over the way forward. The party has lost M supporters since the elections, when L decided to release Stefan Löfven (S) as prime minister. Part of the party wants to leave the January collaboration now and take a position for M leader Ulf Kristersson as prime minister. Another part of the liberals wants to remain in cooperation. They point out that a Kristersson government will likely cooperate with the Swedish Democrats, which they don’t want.
If liberals abandon the January cooperation, it could trigger a government crisis. L’s votes are necessary for the government to receive support in the Riksdag for its state budgets. If L leaves, the opposition parties on the right are likely to request a vote of no confidence on the Prime Minister and thus on the future of the government. Then we can be back in the middle of forming a government from the fall of 2018 and January 2019.
Therefore, the crisis of the liberals also a headache for the Social Democrats. The prime minister’s party also collapses in the new opinion poll by 4.3 percent. Despite this, Stefan Löfven (S) can breathe easy.
The first measurement was made in May, during the first wave of the crown crisis. Support for the government was still very strong and the Social Democrats dominated the news flow.
Now the effect of the crisis has diminished. S is losing votes to, among others, M, who has risen in public opinion during the crown crisis with his ambition to be a constructive opposition.
But when compared to the result of the last parliamentary elections, S has not regressed, which is still a good result for a ruling party in the middle of a term. Above all, the evidence that freed Stefan Löfven as prime minister remains greater than M, SD and KD combined. If today’s poll were the result of an election, SD, M and KD would win around 165 seats (and L would leave the Riksdag), which is not enough to form a new government.
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