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“By the end of 2021, the economy may be back in line with our previous forecast for a rapid recovery,” they write.
They write that the second wave has become more serious than they expected, with a rapid increase in people needing hospital care and tighter restrictions. This has already left its mark on consumption, based on available high-frequency data, even in the form of fewer restaurant visits.
This will cause Handelsbanken to adjust its forecasts in the near future, where they now expect a drop in GDP during the fourth quarter as a result of a sharp drop in certain parts of household consumption, where, among other things, clothing is expected to fall. and footwear, restaurants and hotels. back to lows near spring. GDP is expected to fall a bit more before the winter ends.
This is followed by a significant recovery in 2021, when the parts of consumption most affected by the crown return to more normal levels. Export growth is also forecast to be more moderate going forward after the strong recovery during the third quarter. According to a more model-based forecast, it will be a weak first half of 2021.
In total, Handelsbanken maintains this year’s GDP forecast of -3.2%, while the forecast for 2021 is lowered to 2.4% from 4.1% previously. The GDP growth forecast in 2022 rises to 3.9% from the previous 2.7%, where the adjustment is highly technical in nature because the change in GDP during the year differs from the previous forecast.
The bank still expects unemployment to peak at around 9.5 percent, but that the expected double dip is delaying the radical shift in the labor market.
