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The new policy proposals run the risk of harshly affecting the automotive industry and, above all, the transition to more environmentally friendly alternatives.
This is according to a new forecast from Bil Sweden, which TT has read.
Rechargeable car sales are forecast to decline sharply next year, and for new registrations in total, the biggest drop since the financial crisis awaits.
Despite the pandemic and economic uncertainty, rechargeable alternatives have continued to establish themselves more and more in the Swedish car market. So far this year, the share stands at 28.9 percent, a substantial increase compared to 2019, when the corresponding figure was 11.3 percent.
But the uptrend now risks slowing down by 2021, according to the Bil Sweden industry association.
– All positive growth, in which we would go from 30 percent to 40 percent of rechargeable cars, will slow down and we will remain at this year’s level of 30 percent due to the change of instruments, says CEO Mattias Bergman .
In addition to a strong deterioration forecast for rechargeable cars, by ten percentage points, a drop is also observed for the total car market.
The number of new registrations is estimated to decline by 10 to 12 percent over the same time period, the weakest development since the 2009 financial crisis, when a 16 percent drop was observed.
– We share the objectives of the government and that is why it is so regrettable. What you want to achieve, that is, climate change, is not the result that is being achieved now, says Mattias Bergman.
Bonus malus changes
It then refers to the four proposals that the government has proposed together with the cooperating parties, including changes within the bonus malus system.
Pure electric cars receive a higher bonus, while the bonus is reduced for plug-in hybrids by SEK 8,000-10,000. Cars with carbon dioxide emissions of 61 to 70 grams per kilometer are also not entitled to a bonus.
Also, there is a change regarding profit taxes, where the Bil Sweden side believes that many will opt for, for example, a new charging hybrid for an older car, at least three years old, which therefore it is not covered by the bonus malus system.
– Charge hybrids are the product that has been able to leave the automotive industry quickly. Before having a developed charging infrastructure, it is a very good product for many. Now the bonus is reduced, at the same time that those who take a plug-in hybrid as a benefit car receive a steep tax increase. This will mean that we will get this reduced stake, says Mattias Bergman.
Opposite direction
Bil Sweden now points out that Sweden is going in the opposite direction from many other European countries, taking Germany as an example, where it was recently announced that it will extend the increased bonus for electric cars until 2025. Sweden’s route may also have consequences for consumers , according to Mattias Bergman.
– Car manufacturers will prioritize markets where there is the greatest demand and best business opportunities. This in turn means long lead times and then customers choose cars with shorter lead times and then not having the same climate benefit.
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