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German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Kannerbauer breathed a sigh of relief after the US presidential election. With Joe Biden in the White House, the issue of NATO is no longer so problematic. Now everything can go back to the old, where the United States is ultimately responsible for the defense of Europe, he said.
But it will probably not be so easy for the most influential country in the EU to escape its angst over world politics.
The first thing he speaks against is that Joe Biden as clearly as Donald Trump sees China as the main enemy of the United States. Russia no.
However, Biden will not be so rude in language and action. does not learn to back China or refrain from cracking down on Chinese businesses.
Unlike Trump, he will also try to get America’s allies to follow him in that fight – that is, Europe.
This gives Germany problems. Germans, like Swedes, prefer to avoid conflict and simply be allowed to act. German trade with China is breaking records and is now larger than its trade with the United States. Especially the powerful auto industry is selling out in China like never before.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has refrained from challenging China at every opportunity, has not excluded Huawei from the networks, and has closed her eyes to Volkswagen by building factories with Uighur personnel, forced or not.
Both the Germans and the Swedes like to cross out President Macron as yet another Frenchman with illusions. Do not do it.
The second thing that speaks against going back to the old is that during Trump’s four years in power, the EU began to build a defense union with its own defense capabilities.
Once the EU has deployed its machinery, it is almost impossible to stop. Money is doubled, committees are fully coordinated, joint threat analysis is produced, the business community has made billions in contracts and has already started building.
A government can suspend projects quickly. But for the EU to do the same, it requires the unanimity of 27 countries, which takes years of debate to achieve … and such talks have not even started.
The third to speak is French President Macron. He is not ready to give up his plans for greater “European sovereignty”.
Nor is he ready to join the United States in a fight against China.
On the contrary, as can be read in a lengthy interview that took place recently, he wants the EU to take the lead in building a new global order that is not based on the dominance of the United States.
Of course, he doesn’t want to give that role to China either, but he wants the EU, according to others (Canada, Japan, Australia) to reform the global institutions that he believes they no longer fulfill. The UN Security Council, for example, is doing no good, he says, and amid a global pandemic, the World Health Organization could be held hostage by a Donald Trump.
Both the Germans and the Swedes like to cross out President Macron as yet another Frenchman with illusions.
Do not do it.
So far his “wishful thinking” has surprisingly been translated into concrete projects across the EU. He got his euro budget with a bang, he got his defense union, and he’s about to build protective walls around European companies.
If President Macron is talking about reforming global institutions to reflect a new global balance of power, then it is better to sharpen the arguments against it, if you don’t like what he says.
There is a good chance that you have again noticed a movement that comes in time.
